logoPicV1 logoTextV1

Search Results

Below results based on the criteria 'verification'
Total number of records returned: 2

Verifying Evidence of "Congressional Enactments of Race-Gender"
Grant, J. Tobin

Uploaded 02-05-2007
Keywords replication
interpretive methodology
qualitative methods
Abstract I report the results of a verification of Hawkesworth's 2003 "Congressional Enactments of Race-Gender" (CERG). This is a landmark analysis of race and gender in the U.S. Congress that is noteworthy for both its theory and its empirical evidence. A deeper look at the evidence and the context raises fundamental questions about the empirical validity of CERG's theory of race-gender in Congress. I conclude that racing-gendering in Congress is more nuanced than originally presented in CERG, and that further research is necessary to demonstrate empirically CERG's theory of Congress as a raced-gendered institution. This verification has important methodology implications, as it demonstrates why verification of empirical research -- including interpretive research -- should be a widely-practiced methodology within political science.

Racing Horses: Constructing and Evaluating Forecasts in Political Science
Brandt, Patrick
Freeman, John R.
Schrodt, Philip

Uploaded 07-27-2011
Keywords forecasting
political conflict
scoring rules
model training
forecast density
verification rank histogram
probability integral transform
Abstract We review methods for forecast evaluations and how they can be used in political sciences. We examine how forecast densities are more useful summaries of forecasted variables than point metrics. We also cover how continuous rank probability scores, probability integral transforms, and verification rank histograms can be used to calibrate and evaluate forecast performance. Finally, we present two illustrations, one a simulation and the other a comparison of forecasting models for the China-Taiwan (cross-straits) conflict.

< prev 1 next>