1

Paper

Policies, Prototypes, and Presidential Approval Gronke, Paul Uploaded 08-20-1999 Keywords presidency presidential approval heteroskedasticity variance modeling uncertainty Abstract American presidents, like all democratic political leaders, rely on popular support in order to promote their political agenda, gain legislative victories, and succeed at the ballot box. Extant studies of approval, however, focus resolutely on aggregate values, while individual level determinants, and variation, have been ignored. This paper redresses this imbalance, and in doing so speaks to the outstanding questions in studies of presidential approval. Individual level presidential approval is a product of three dimensions of evaluation: prospective policy judgements (what are you going to do for me tomorrow?), retrospective assessments (what did you do for me yesterday?), and personality assessments (what kind of leader are you?). In addition, the model draws on new models of uncertainty in the survey response, testing the hypothesis that weaker partisan attachments and lower levels of chronic political information will lead to greater uncertainty about presidential performance. The model is tested using NES studies from 1980--1996. The overall performance is superior (predicting from 40-70% of the variance in individual scores), and the primary hypotheses are confirmed. Retrospective, but not prospective, judgements drive individual level presidential approval, thus challenging the ``bankers" model of approval, and personality assessments play a central role in approval. Finally, strong evidence is found of heteroskedasticity in the approval models, and political information, interest in the presidential contest, and strength of partisan attachments all lead to lower levels of uncertainty. Variations in the role played by party during the Reagan years, compared to the presidencies of Carter, Bush, and Clinton, suggest a complex interaction between partisan ties, presidential performance, and the personality of the particular individual occupying the oval office.

2

Paper

Uncertainty and Candidate Personality Traits Alvarez, R. Michael Glasgow, Garrett Uploaded 04-16-1998 Keywords uncertainty direct measures of uncertainty survey response ordered probit candidate evaluation candidate traits presidential elections Abstract Recently, some scholars have focused attention on the role of uncertainty in elections (Alvarez 1997, Bartels 1986, Franklin 1991). They reveal that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the issue positions of candidates, and thus the costs of issue voting are burdensome for the average citizen. Further, this uncertainty affects how voters evaluate candidates in two ways. First, voters are less likely to evaluate a candidate in terms of an issue when they are uncertain about the candidate's position on that issue. Second, uncertainty about candidate issue positions has a negative impact on voter evaluations of a candidate. However, it is important to realize that for most individuals, information about the personality traits of candidates comes from the same sources as information about the issue positions of the candidates, generally media outlets. This means that information about the the personalities of candidates is passed through the same noisy channels as information about their issue positions, and is thus subject to the same types of distortions and biases that contribute to the cost of issue information. Although it is likely easier to interpret than issue information, trait information is still subject to uncertainty. In this paper we introduce direct survey measures of candidate personality trait uncertainty. Using survey data drawn from the 1995 and 1996 National Election Studies, we first establish that the direct measure of uncertainty used in this paper is a valid measure. We then examine the effect of trait opinions on candidate evaluations and test the effects that uncertainty about those opinions has on the use of traits in candidate evaluation.

3

Paper

Survey Measures of Uncertainty Alvarez, R. Michael Uploaded 00-00-0000 Keywords uncertainty surveys National Election Studies Abstract There have been a number of measures of voter uncertainty about candidate issue stands which have been proposed in the literature. Here I examine the use of "direct" uncertainty questions, where respondents are asked to give their subjective uncertainty about some question they have just been asked. The 1995 NES Pilot Study included two survey experiments regarding the uncertainty questions; one which examined uncertainty about candidate traits, the other looking at uncertainty of environmental issue placements using branching-format issue questions. Using these survey experiments, I conclude that these survey questions merit use in future National Election Study surveys.

4

Paper

Information and American Attitudes Toward Bureaucracy Alvarez, R. Michael Brehm, John Uploaded 00-00-0000 Keywords discrete choice logit probit heteroskedasticity ordered logit Internal Revenue Service ambivalence uncertainty Abstract The exploration of American attitudes towards the Internal Revenue Service joins an unusual pair of research domains: public opinion and public administration. Public administration scholars contend that the hostility Americans show towards ``bureaucracy'' stems from the contradictory expectations Americans have for bureaucratic performance. Drawing upon a survey commissioned by the IRS and conducted in 1987 just after the passage of the Tax Reform Act, we explore attitudes towards the performance of the IRS in eight categories. Using a new heteroskedastic ordinal logit technique, we demonstrate (1) that it is overwhelmingly a single expectation of flexibility that governs attitudes towards the IRS; (2) that these expectations are not in contradiction; and (3) that domain-specific information sharply focuses respondent attitudes towards bureaucracy.

5

Paper

Attitudes, Uncertainty and Survey Responses Alvarez, R. Michael Franklin, Charles Uploaded 00-00-0000 Keywords uncertainty survey response issue voting attitude stability Abstract Theory: We assume that survey respondents are uncertain about their attitudes, and that their attitudes about political issues can be understood as probability distributions. From this perspective, we derive the ``expected value'' survey response model. We also derive a dynamic model of attitude change, based on the notion that attitudes are uncertain. Hypotheses: This perspective on political attitudes leads to two predictions. The first is that uncertain respondents will show less variance in responses than certain respondents, and that the less certain will tend to give responses towards the midpoint of issue placement scales. The second is that uncertain respondents will have less stable opinions about political issues over time. Methods: These hypotheses are tested using new survey questions we have developed to measure respondent uncertainty. These survey questions have been included in three recent national surveys, two conducted by the Letters and Sciences Survey Center at the University of Wisconsin, Madison and the other by the National Election Studies. Results: We demonstrate that uncertain respondents are more likely that certain respondents to provide issue placements at the midpoint of the scale, controlling for many factors. Also, we show that uncertain respondents have less stable political attitudes than certain respondents.

6

Paper

Uncertainty and Ambivalence in the Ecology of Race Alvarez, R. Michael Brehm, John Uploaded 08-22-1996 Keywords racial policy affirmative action ecological inference heteroskedastic ordered logit value conflict uncertainty ambivalence equivocation Abstract Since Myrdal (1944), scholars have regarded American attitudes towards racial policy as a conflict between values, groups, and interests. Although Myrdal viewed the conflict as a state internal to individuals, it begins as aggregate conflict. This mix of ecologies---individual and aggregate---carries forth to the present. This paper takes the question of different ecologies for racial politics seriously, developing tools to compare conflict at individual and aggregate level. We demonstrate that individual racial policy choices stems principally from racial resentment, and that the variability of that choice indicates a state of uncertainty, not ambivalence or equivocation. We further demonstrate that racial resentment does not surface as a predictor of aggregate racial policy choice, even though individual choices about racial policies appear to be more strongly influenced by the level of political informedness.

7

Paper

Partisan Strength and Uncertain Presidential Evaluations Gronke, Paul Uploaded 08-22-1997 Keywords presidential approval uncertainty partisanship Abstract American presidents, as do all democratic political leaders, rely on popular support in order to promote their political agenda, gain legislative victories, and succeed at the ballot box. Presidential approval, however, displays more than just a mean value, it also has a variance. And even a well regarded political leader would prefer to avoid widely variant support. At the individual level, variance is analogous to the level of uncertainty that an individual has about presidential performance This paper demonstrates the central role that partisan attachments play in fostering clarity in presidential approval. In general, respondents with stronger partisan attachments, combined with issue positions favorable to the president, are far more certain in their approval response. Fascinating variations in the role that party played during the Reagan years, compared to Carter, Bush, and Clinton, suggest a complex interaction between partisan ties, presidential performance, and the particular occupant of the oval office. The paper draws on data from the National Election Studies, 1980--1994. Ordinary least squares regression models are estimated, and clear evidence of heteroskedasticity is shown. A more general model that includes both a model for the mean and for the variance is presented and estimated using the same set of data. The main hypotheses regarding partisan strength and response uncertainty are confirmed.

8

Paper

Indecision Theory: An Informational Model of Roll-Off Katz, Jonathan Ghirardato, Paolo Uploaded 08-05-1997 Keywords voting formal theory decision theory uncertainty abstention Abstract We address the so-called "roll-off" phenomenon: Selective abstention in multiple elections. We present a discuss a novel model of decision making by voters that explains this as a result of differences in quality and quantity of information that the voters have about each election. In doing so we use a spatial model that differs from the Euclidean one, and is more naturally applied to modeling differences in information.

9

Paper

The Political Entropy of Vote Choice: An Empirical Test of Uncertainty Reduction Gill, Jeff Uploaded 08-05-1997 Keywords Entropy Voting Under Uncertainty Proximity Spatial Voting Model Heteroscedastic Probit Abstract Recent literature in voting theory has developed the idea that individual voting preferences are probabilistic rather than strictly deterministic. This work builds upon spatial voting models (Enelow and Hinich 1981, Ferejohn and Fiorina 1974, Davis, DeGroot and Hinich 1972, Farquharson 1969) by introducing probabilistic uncertainty into the calculus of voting decision on an individual level. Some suggest that the voting decision can be modeled with traditional probabilistic tools of uncertainty (Coughlin 1990, Coughlin and Nitzen 1981). Entropy is a measure of uncertainty that originated in statistical thermodynamics. Essentially, entropy indicates the amount of uncertainty in probability distributions (Soofi 1992), or it can be thought of as signifying a lack of human knowledge about some random event (Denbigh and Denbigh, 1985). Entropy in statistics developed with Kolmogorov (1959), Kinchin (1957), and Shannon (1948), but has rarely been applied to social science problems. Exceptions include Darcy and Aigner's (1980) use of entropy to analyze categorical survey responses in political science, and economic applications by Theil (1967) and Theil and Fiebig (1984). I examine voters' uncertainty as they assess candidates, and measure policy positions. I then test whether or not these voters minimize the cost of voting (specifically the cost of information) by determining a maximum entropy selection. Except for the inclusion of entropy terms, this approach is similar to others in the recent literature. In this paper I develop a measure to aggregate evaluation of issue uncertainty and corresponding vote choice where the uncertainty parameterization is derived from an entropy calculation on a set of salient election issues. The primary advantage of this approach is that it requires very few assumptions about the nature of the data. Using 1994 American National Election Study survey data from the Center for Political Studies, I test the hypothesis that the ``Contract with America'' reduced voter uncertainty about the issue positions of Republican House candidates. The entropic model suggests that voters used the written and explicit Republican agenda as a means of reducing issue uncertainty without substantially increasing time spent evaluating candidate positions.

10

Paper

Too many Variables? A Comment on Bartels' ModelAveraging Proposal Erikson, Robert S. Wright, Gerald C. McIver, John P. Uploaded 07-18-1997 Keywords Bayes Factor Bayesian Information Criterion Bayesian statistics model averaging model specification specification uncertainty Bartels Abstract Abstract: Bartels (1997) popularizes the procedure of model- averaging (Raftery, 1995, 1997), making some important innovations of his own along the way. He offers his methodology as a technology for exposing excessive specification searches in other peoples' research. As a demonstration project, Bartels applied his version of model- averaging to a portion of our work on state policy and purports to detect evidence of considerable model uncertainty. . In response, we argue that Bartels' extensions of model averaging methodology are ill-advised, and show that our challenged findings hold up under the scrutiny of the original Raftery-type model averaging.

11

Paper

Bayesian Model Averaging: Theoretical developments and practical applications Montgomery, Jacob Nyhan, Brendan Uploaded 01-22-2008 Keywords Bayesian model averaging BMA model robustness specification uncertainty Abstract Political science researchers typically conduct an idiosyncratic search of possible model configurations and then present a single specification to readers. This approach systematically understates the uncertainty of our results, generates concern among readers and reviewers about fragile model specifications, and leads to the estimation of bloated models with huge numbers of controls. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a systematic method for analyzing specification uncertainty and checking the robustness of one's results to alternative model specifications. In this paper, we summarize BMA, review important recent developments in BMA research, and argue for a different approach to using the technique in political science. We then illustrate the methodology by reanalyzing models of voting in U.S. Senate elections and international civil war onset using software that respects statistical conventions within political science.

12

Paper

Estimating Binary Dependent Variable Models Under Conditions of Specification Uncertainty Berry, William DeMeritt, Jacqueline Esarey, Justin Uploaded 01-25-2007 Keywords logit probit binary dependent variable specification uncertainty interaction Monte Carlo analysis Abstract Political scientists routinely use logit or probit models when their data involve binary dependent variables (BDVs). Yet the hypotheses we test with logit and probit are rarely specific enough to justify that one of these models is the correct functional form for the process (or true model) generating the data. In this situation of specification uncertainty, it is reasonable to assume that the model being estimated is misspecified. The only issue is the severity of the resulting distortion in results, i.e., whether logit or probit approximates the true model well enough to yield estimated effects that are acceptably close to the true ones. To study estimation in the presence of specification uncertainty, we conduct Monte Carlo analysis using a strategy of purposeful misspecification: we use various logit and probit models with different terms on data sets generated from a wide range of known true models involving a BDV, none of which takes the exact form of a logit or probit model. We find that a widely-employed approach for using logit or probit to test the hypothesis that an independent variable has a positive (or negative) effect on the probability that some event will occur-­by estimating the effect of the variable at central values of the independent variables­-is highly forgiving of specification uncertainty, yielding reasonably accurate inferences even when the true model is not logit or probit. Unfortunately, other applications of logit and probit­-including a common approach to testing a hypothesis that independent variables interact in influencing the probability of event occurrence­-are not nearly as forgiving of the uncertainty. In some situations of specification uncertainty, we can improve the quality of estimated effects by relying on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC] to choose the terms to be included in a model, but even these improved estimates leave much to be desired.

13

Paper

Uncertainty and American Public Opinion Alvarez, R. Michael Brehm, John Wison, Catherine Uploaded 04-14-2001 Keywords uncertainty opinion Abstract In this paper we describe three distinct causes (uncertainty, ambivalence and equivocation) of individual level variation in responses to survey questions soliciting opinion on public policy issues. We evaluate the predictive power of these causes using the heteroscedastic probit model, an inferential statistical technique that is well-suited to the study of variability in public opinion. We estimate this model using survey data on four public policy issues: abortion, affirmative action, school prayer and english-only mandates. Our results indicate that for these policy issues individual uncertainty is the primary cause of survey response variability.

14

Paper

A Positive Theory of Bureaucratic Discretion as Agency Choice Krause, George Uploaded 02-24-2000 Keywords bureaucratic discretion administrative decision-making uncertainty policy implementation formal theory Abstract Existing research on the positive theory of bureaucratic discretion views this phenomenon as a "supply-side" concept that elected officials determine without considering bureaucratic preferences altogether, or by merely treating it as being exogenous to the optimization problem confronting politicians. It has been well established by bureaucracy scholars that agencies have preferences concerning bureaucratic discretion and are proactive in trying to get these preferences met (e.g., Rourke 1984; Wilson 1989). In this essay, I set forth a "demand-side" theory of bureaucratic discretion where an administrative agency's preferences for this commodity under conditions of uncertainty is determined through the relationship between its utility and (a) bureaucratic discretion, and (b) policy (implementation) outcome uncertainty, separately. Moreover, I argue that the discretionary context confronting the agency will matter, and thus incorporate this into the theoretical model. Hypotheses concerning the discretionary context by which administrative agencies will view bureaucratic discretion are generated from this model. Finally, I propose a statistical test that could be employed to empirically test the theoretical predictions of the "demand-side" model of bureaucratic discretion set forth in this paper.

15

Paper

Respondent Uncertainty of Candidate Issue Positions and Its Effects on Estimates of Issue Salience Glasgow, Garrett Uploaded 03-23-1999 Keywords issue salience uncertainty coefficient bias spatial models Abstract (not transcribed)

16

Paper

Selection Bias in a Model of Candidate Entry Decisions Kanthak, Kristen Morton, Becky Gerber, Elisabeth R. Uploaded 07-13-1999 Keywords selection bias Poisson estimation population uncertainty Abstract In recent years, several states have changed or considered changing their laws regulating how political parties nominate candidates for office. We focus on one potentially important consequence of these changes: How do primary election laws affect candidate entry decisions? We have constructed and solved a formal model of individual candidate behavior in which potential candidates can choose to: 1) enter the electoral competition as major party candidates; 2) enter as minor party candidates; 3) enter as independents; or 4) not enter. Based on our analysis of the model, we hypothesize that the expected utility of each choice is a function, in part, of a state's primary election laws. We test our hypotheses with data on candidate choice from recent US Congressional elections. Estimation of our model is complicated, however, by the fact that we do not observe the choices of potential candidates who choose not to enter (i.e., the sample is truncated) and the observed dependent variable (i.e., candidate choices to run as major party, minor party, or independent candidates) is measured as a discrete, unordered polychotomous choice. We employ a two-stage Heckman (1979)-type estimation procedure that utilizes a Poisson framework for estimating candidate entry rates. We find that our estimates of the effects of electoral institutions on the partisan affiliation decisions of independent candidates are unaffected by sample selection. Our estimates of the partisan affiliation decisions of minor party candidates, however, change when we account for non-random sample selection.