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Below results based on the criteria 'trade'
Total number of records returned: 5
Trade and Conflict in the Cold War Era: An Empirical Analysis
generalized additive model
What is the relationship between trade and conflict in the post-World War II era. Using a dyad-year design, and studying both all dyads and politically relevant dyads, this paper uses the generalized additive model to study the relationship between dyadic trade and militarized interstate disputes (both all disputes and those involving casualties only). For all dyads, moving from no trade to a small amount of trade increases the likelihood of conflict, though that mostly reflects the fact that non-traders also are likely to have little conflict in any arena. Moving from zero to low trade decreases the likelihood of conflict among politically relevant dyads, though this may simply reflect the nature of the Cold War world where dyads made up of Cold War opponents did not trade but did fight. In any event, there is little evidence for a causal pacific impact of trade, but also little evidence that trade is inherently conflictual, other than being an obvious necessary condition for trade disputes and also signalling that dyadic partners are in some interesting relationship.
Trade and Militarized Conflict: How Modeling Strategic Interactions Between States Makes a Difference
Rowan, Shawn E.
The study between the interaction of war and foreign trade has occupied scholars from political science and economics for thousands of years. I contribute to the trade and conflict debate by accounting for the strategic interaction between states that most or all theories in international relations (IR) assume. I use a strategic statistical model (Signorino 1999, 2003b) that endogenizes the actions that leads states to militarized conflict and peace. The results of the strategic probit model reveal non-linear, asymmetric relationships between trade dependence and militarized conflict for each state in the dyad. Not only are these effects non-linear, but, in equilibrium, also depend on the actions taken by the other state in the dyad. The trade dependence of one state on another can have either a pacifying or a positive effect on militarized conflict. Additionally, these effects are only realized for initial increases in trade dependence and that once a threshold is reached, the effects of trade dependence are constant.
How Legislators Respond to Localized Economic Shocks
Hall, Andrew B.
We explore the effects of localized economic shocks from trade on roll-call behavior and electoral outcomes in the U.S. House, 1990--2010. We demonstrate that economic shocks from Chinese import competition---first studied by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013a)---cause legislators to vote in the more protectionist direction on trade bills but cause no change in their voting on all other bills. At the same time, these shocks have no effect on the reelection rates of incumbents, the probability an incumbent faces a primary challenge, or the partisan control of the district. Though changes in economic conditions are likely to cause electoral turnover in many cases, incumbents exposed to negative economic shocks from trade appear able to fend off these effects in equilibrium by taking strategic positions on foreign-trade bills. In line with this view, we find that the effect on roll-call voting is strongest in districts where incumbents are most threatened, electorally. Taken together, these results paint a picture of responsive incumbents who tailor their roll-call positions on trade bills to the economic conditions in their districts.
Representation and Salient Issues: Legislator Responsiveness to the Service Constituency
Bennett, Sherry L.
Smith, Renee M.
U.S. trade policy
ormal models of the supply of public policy and of information transmission between lobbyists and legislators imply that the preferences of both organized and informed, but unorganized, interests influence legislators' vote choices. Denzau and Munger (1986) refer to these citizens as a legislator's service constituency. In this paper, we provide argument and evidence to show that the concept of a service constituency is crucial to theoretical explanations and empirical investigations of a legislator's responsiveness to constituent demands on salient issues. We also provide theory and evidence to account for the process by which unorganized citizens become part of a service constituency. Our argument emphasizes the effects of interest group competition on information accessibility and opinion activation for diffuse, unorganized citizens. Our empirical evidence provides strong support for our hypotheses about opinion activation and the effects of the service constituency on legislative behavio
Uncovering Common Latent Space of Multiple Networks Using Bayesian Spectral Approach
Park, Jong Hee
hierarchical Bayesian PARAFAC
network change point detection
network time series
stochastic block model
US Senate change points
Social scientists commonly encounter multiple realizations of networks, each of which is possibly governed by distinct generation rules, while sharing key traits. However, conventional network models in social sciences focus largely on a single-type, single-layer network, lacking a unified framework for the recovery of the interconnectivity associated with multiple networks. By employing spectral approach, we discuss a Bayesian statistical method to unravel a common latent space of actors from multiple relational data (e.g. networks with different link definition, time series networks). We extend this idea by incorporating change-point estimation method for proper grouping of layers in network time series data.