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Below results based on the criteria 'surveys'
Total number of records returned: 13

1
Paper
Inferring Micro- from Macrolevel Change: Ecological Panel Inference in Surveys
Penubarti, Mohan
Schuessler, Alexander

Uploaded 07-20-1998
Keywords Ecological panel inference (EPI)
surveys
public opinion
Abstract To draw panel inferences at the microlevel from cross-sectional surveys invites an ecological inference problem. In this paper we derive from King's ecological inference solution a method of ecological panel inference (EPI) which allows researchers to estimate microlevel change from macrolevel measures of change. We verify our approach in panel data where magnitudes of microlevel change are known, and we subsequently apply and illustrate our method using public opinion data on presidential approval. EPI should be of interest to researchers seeking to explain microlevel change in the absence of microlevel data. It should equally be of interest to researchers seeking to explain macrolevel change as it makes visible to them the microlevel components that drive such aggregate-level change.

2
Paper
Elections and the National Election Studies
King, Gary

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords surveys
aggregate data
ecological inference
Abstract This paper, which was written for the National Election Studies, Congressional Elections Conference, argues that the National Election Studies can best contribute knowledge about American politics, and best ensure that the organization prospers, by a data collection strategy that includes a creative combination of detailed aggregate election data with traditional survey research. A sampling design similar to, but considerably less expensive than, the voter validation studies could produce a bounty of information about real precinct-level electoral returns from numerous electoral offices, along with valuable demographic and economic data.

3
Paper
Survey Measures of Uncertainty
Alvarez, R. Michael

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords uncertainty
surveys
National Election Studies
Abstract There have been a number of measures of voter uncertainty about candidate issue stands which have been proposed in the literature. Here I examine the use of "direct" uncertainty questions, where respondents are asked to give their subjective uncertainty about some question they have just been asked. The 1995 NES Pilot Study included two survey experiments regarding the uncertainty questions; one which examined uncertainty about candidate traits, the other looking at uncertainty of environmental issue placements using branching-format issue questions. Using these survey experiments, I conclude that these survey questions merit use in future National Election Study surveys.

4
Paper
Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys
Gelman, Andrew
King, Gary
Liu, Chuanhai

Uploaded 10-27-1997
Keywords Bayesian inference
cluster sampling
diagnostics
hierarchical models
ignorable nonresponse
missing data
political science
sample surveys
stratified sampling
multiple imputation
Abstract We present a method of analyzing a series of independent cross-sectional surveys in which some questions are not answered in some surveys and some respondents do not answer some of the questions posed. The method is also applicable to a single survey in which different questions are asked, or different sampling methods used, in different strata or clusters. Our method involves multiply-imputing the missing items and questions by adding to existing methods of imputation designed for single surveys a hierarchical regression model that allows covariates at the individual and survey levels. Information from survey weights is exploited by including in the analysis the variables on which the weights were based, and then reweighting individual responses (observed and imputed) to estimate population quantities. We also develop diagnostics for checking the fit of the imputation model based on comparing imputed to non-imputed data. We illustrate with the example that motivated this project --- a study of pre-election public opinion polls, in which not all the questions of interest are asked in all the surveys, so that it is infeasible to impute each survey separately.

5
Paper
Non-Compulsory Voting in Australia?: what surveys can (and can't) tell us
Jackman, Simon

Uploaded 08-25-1997
Keywords turnout
Australian politics
compulsory voting
political participation
counter-factuals
surveys
non-response
measurement error
social-desirability heuristic
question-order effects
simulation
parametric bootstrap
Abstract Compulsory voting has come under close scrutiny in recent Australian political debate, and influential voices within the (conservative) Coalition government have called for its repeal. Conventional wisdom holds that a repeal of compulsory voting would result in a sizeable electoral boost for the Coalition; the proportion of Coalition voters who would not vote is thought to be smaller than the corresponding proportion of Labor voters. But estimates of Coalition gains under a return to voluntary turnout are quite rough-and-ready, relying on methods hampered by critical shortcomings. In this paper I focus on assessing the counter-factual of non-compulsory turnout via surveys: while turnout is compulsory in Australia, responding to surveys isn't, and the problems raised by high rates of non-response are especially pernicious in attempting to assess the counter-factual of voluntary turnout. Among survey respondents, social-desirability and question-order effects also encourage over-reports of the likelihood of voluntarily turning out. Taking non-response and measurement error into consideration, I conclude that survey-based estimates (a) significantly emph{under-estimate} the extent to which turnout would emph{decline} under a voluntary turnout regime; but (b) emph{over-estimate} the extent to which a fall in turnout would work to the advantage of the Coalition parties. Nonetheless, the larger of the Coalition parties --- the Liberal Party --- unambiguously increases its vote share under a wide range of assumptions about who does and doesn't voluntarily turnout.

6
Paper
Death by Survey: Estimating Adult Mortality without Selection Bias
King, Gary
Gakidou, Emmanuela

Uploaded 07-14-2005
Keywords surveys
selection bias
mortality data
extrapolation
international relations
Abstract The widely used methods for estimating adult mortality rates from sample survey responses about the survival of siblings, parents, spouses, and others depend crucially on an assumption that we demonstrate does not hold in real data. We show that when this assumption is violated -- so that the mortality rate varies with sibship size -- mortality estimates can be massively biased. By using insights from work on the statistical analysis of selection bias, survey weighting, and extrapolation problems, we propose a new and relatively simple method of recovering the mortality rate with both greatly reduced potential for bias and increased clarity about the source of necessary assumptions.

7
Paper
Computerized Adaptive Testing for Public Opinion Surveys
Montgomery, Jacob
Cutler, Josh

Uploaded 06-19-2012
Keywords surveys
item response
CAT
dynamic surveys
CAT
Abstract Survey researchers avoid using large multi-item scales to measure latent traits due to both the financial costs and the risk of driving up non-response rates. Typically, investigators select a subset of available scale items rather than asking the full battery. Reduced batteries, however, can sharply reduce measurement precision and introduce bias. In this paper, we present computerized adaptive testing (CAT) as a method for minimizing the number of questions each respondent must answer while preserving measurement accuracy and precision. CAT algorithms respond to individuals' previous answers to select subsequent questions that most efficiently reveal respondents' position on a latent dimension. We introduce the basic stages of a CAT algorithm and present the details for one approach to item-selection appropriate for public opinion research. We then demonstrate the advantages of CAT via simulation and by empirically comparing dynamic and static measures of political knowledge.

8
Paper
Computerized Adaptive Testing for Public Opinion Surveys
Montgomery, Jacob
Cutler, Josh

Uploaded 06-19-2012
Keywords surveys
item response
CAT
dynamic surveys
Abstract Survey researchers avoid using large multi-item scales to measure latent traits due to both the financial costs and the risk of driving up non-response rates. Typically, investigators select a subset of available scale items rather than asking the full battery. Reduced batteries, however, can sharply reduce measurement precision and introduce bias. In this paper, we present computerized adaptive testing (CAT) as a method for minimizing the number of questions each respondent must answer while preserving measurement accuracy and precision. CAT algorithms respond to individuals' previous answers to select subsequent questions that most efficiently reveal respondents' position on a latent dimension. We introduce the basic stages of a CAT algorithm and present the details for one approach to item-selection appropriate for public opinion research. We then demonstrate the advantages of CAT via simulation and by empirically comparing dynamic and static measures of political knowledge.

9
Paper
Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout?
Jackman, Simon
Spahn, Bradley

Uploaded 07-23-2014
Keywords turnout
surveys
non-response
vote validation
social desirability
voter files
Abstract For decades the American National Election Studies has consistently produced large over-estimates of voter turnout. The cause of this persistent bias is poorly understood. This is profoundly awkward for a well-resourced, NSF-funded scientific enterprise that is otherwise regarded as the "gold standard'' in survey-based studies of political behavior, utilizing a probability-based sampling design and in-person interviews administered by trained field staff. The face-to-face component of ANES produced a turnout estimate of somewhere between 71.0\% and 75.3\%, an overestimate of somewhere between 9 and 17 points. We consider three explanations for the large over-estimate of turnout in the face-to-face component of the 2012 ANES: non-response bias (or self-selection), over-reporting and the possibility that the ANES survey experience constitutes is an inadvertent GOTV treatment. Three separate analyses — of a customized data set built from records supplied by three leading voter and consumer data providers — suggests all three phenomenon are at work in the 2012 ANES, in roughly equal magnitudes of about five percentage points each.

10
Paper
Aggregation and Dynamics of Survey Responses: The Case of Presidential Approval
Alvarez, R. Michael
Katz, Jonathan

Uploaded 10-01-2001
Keywords presidential approval
integration
time-series
fractional integration
surveys
Abstract In this paper we critique much of the empirical literature on the important political science concept of presidential approval. We first argue that dynamics attributed to the aggregate presidential approval series are often logically inconsistent and always substantively implausible. In particular, we show that is no way for a bounded series, such as the approval series, to be integrated. However, even in non-integrated models often lead to implausible substantive findings due to aggregation both across Presidential administrations and from models of individual level behavior to aggregate survey marginals. We argue that using individual-level survey responses is superior for methodological and theoretical reasons, and we provide an example of such an analysis using Gallup Organization survey data.

11
Paper
Ideology and U.S. Senate Candidates
Burden, Barry C.
Kenny, Christopher B.

Uploaded 04-19-2000
Keywords ideology
measurement
elite surveys
Abstract This paper reports on a pilot study for what will become the Candidate Ideology Survey (CIS). Beginning in 2000, the CIS will survey all major-party House and Senate candidates, asking them to locate themselves on the left-right ideological spectrum. Such an approach improves on existing ideology measures such those based on roll call votes because it puts both incumbents and challengers on a common scale. Existing studies of congressional elections that include only the ideology of the incumbent in vote models are likely underestimating the importance of ideology generally, the positions of challengers are useful if not necessary. The paper presents findings from a preliminary survey of senators and Senate challengers in 1998. It explains the ususual elite mail survey methodology used in terms of response rate and representativeness of the sample. It also examines the validity of the data in terms of partisan and regional differences and relationships with existing ideological measures. Among other substance results, we find that the ideological "fit" of incumbents with constituents is much better than the "fit" of challengers with constituents. By improving on this design and adding the House in the 2000 CIS wave, we hope to generate data that will be of great use to researchers who study congressional elections.

12
Paper
Post-stratification without population level information on the post-stratifying variable, with application to political polling
Gelman, Andrew
Katz, Jonathan
Riley, Cavan

Uploaded 02-10-2000
Keywords Bayesian Inference
Post-stratification
Sample surveys
State-space models
Abstract We investigate the construction of more precise estimates of a collection of population means using information about a related variable in the context of repeated sample surveys. The method is illustrated using poll results concerning presidential approval rating (our related variable is political party identification). We use post-stratification to construct these improved estimates, but since we don't have population level information on the post-stratifying variable, we construct a model for the manner in which the post-stratifier develops over time. In this manner, we obtain more precise estimates without making possibly untenable assumptions about the dynamics of our variable of interest, the presidential approval rating.

13
Paper
A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses (Revised, with New Evidence)
Lacy, Dean

Uploaded 04-20-1998
Keywords surveys
nonseparable preferences
question-order effects
temporal instability
Abstract This paper presents two models of individual-level responses to issue questions in public opinion surveys when respondents have nonseparable preferences. Both models imply that even when survey respondents have fixed preferences, their responses will change depending on the order of questions, and responses may vary over time. Results from two survey experiments reveal that question-order effects occur on issues for which people have nonseparable preferences, and order effects do not occur on issues for which most people have separable preferences.


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