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Below results based on the criteria 'split-population models'
Total number of records returned: 2
Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
transitions to democracy
cure rate models
I investigate the determinants and the process of authoritarian reversals and democratic consolidation. I employ a new empirical model that allows me to distinguish between two central dynamics: the likelihood that a democracy consolidates, and the timing of authoritarian reversals in democracies that are not consolidated. I demonstrate that existing democracies are a mixture of transitional and consolidated democracies rather than a single population. This approach leads to new insights into the causes of democratic consolidation that cannot be obtained with existing techniques. I find that the level of economic development, type of executive, and authoritarian past determine whether a democracy consolidates, but have no effect on the timing of reversals. That risk is only associated with economic recessions. I also find that the existing studies greatly underestimate the risk of early reversals while they simultaneously overestimate the risk of late reversals, and that a large number of existing democracies are in fact consolidated.
A Split Population Model for Middle-Category Inflation in Ordered Survey Responses
ordered dependent Variables
Recent research find that, for social desirability reasons, uninformed individuals disproportionately give ``neither agree nor disagree'' type responses to survey attitude questions, even when a ``don't know'' option is available (Sturgis et al. 2010). Such ``face-saving don't knows'' inflate the indifference (i.e. middle) categories of ordered attitude variables with non-ordered responses. When this inflation occurs within one's dependent variable, estimates from ordered probit/logit models are biased and inefficient. This poster develops a set of mixture models (the middle-inflated ordered probit with and without correlated errors) that estimate and account for the presence of ``face-saving'' responses in middle-categories of ordered survey response variables, and applies these models to (1) simulated data and (2) a commonly studied survey question measuring support for EU-membership among EU-candidate countries. Findings suggest that, when middle-category inflation is present in one's ordered dependent variable, the estimates obtained from middle-category mixture models are less biased than---and in some cases substantively distinct from---the estimates obtained from ``naive'' ordered probit models.