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The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946-1994 O'Loughlin, John Ward, Michael D. Lofdahl, Corey L. Cohen, Jordin S. Brown, David S. Reilly, David Gleditsch, Kristian S. Shin, Michael E. Uploaded 11-12-1997 Keywords Spatial diffusion exploratory spatial data analysis spatial statistics regional effects democracy measures of democracy space-time autocorrelation Abstract Research to date on democratization neglects the interconnections between temporal and spatial components that influence this process. This article presents research that reveals the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in the world-system since 1946. We provide strong and consistent evidence of temporal cascading of democratic and autocratic trends as well as strong spatial association (or autocorrelation) of authority structures. The analysis uses an exploratory data approach in a longitudinal framework to understand global and regional trends in democratization. Our work also reveals discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences. We demonstrate how the ebb and flow of democracy varies between the world's regions. We conclude that further modeling of the process of regime change from autocracy to democracy as well as reversals should start from a "domain-specific" position that disaggregates the globe into its regional mosaics.