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Incumbency as a Source of Contamination in Mixed Electoral Systems Hainmueller, Jens Kern, Holger Lutz Uploaded 03-10-2006 Keywords contamination mixed electoral systems causal inference regression-discontinuity design treatment effects incumbency Abstract In this paper we demonstrate empirically that incumbency is a source of contamination in Germany's mixed electoral system. Using a quasi-experimental research design that allows for causal inference under a weaker set of assumptions than the regression models commonly used in the electoral systems literature, we find that incumbency causes a gain of $1.4$ to $1.7$ percentage points in PR vote shares. We also present simulations of Bundestag seat distributions to demonstrate that contamination effects caused by incumbency are sufficiently large to trigger significant shifts in parliamentary majorities

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MPs for Sale? Estimating Returns to Office in Post-War British Politics Eggers, Andrew Hainmueller, Jens Uploaded 03-22-2008 Keywords regression discontinuity design RDD matching UK Britain political economy Abstract While the role of money in policymaking is a central question in political economy research, surprisingly little attention has been given to the rents politicians actually derive from politics. We use both matching and a regression discontinuity design to analyze an original dataset on the estates of recently deceased British politicians. We find that serving in Parliament roughly doubled the wealth at death of Conservative MPs but had no discernible effect on the wealth of Labour MPs. We argue that Conservative MPs profited from office in a lax regulatory environment by using their political positions to obtain outside work as directors, consultants, and lobbyists, both while in office and after retirement. Our results are consistent with anecdotal evidence on MPs' outside financial dealings but suggest that the magnitude of Conservatives' financial gains from office was larger than has been appreciated.

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When Mayors Matter: Estimating the Impact of Mayoral Partisanship on City Policy Gerber, Elisabeth Hopkins, Daniel Uploaded 09-18-2009 Keywords Regression discontinuity design partisanship urban fiscal policy Abstract U.S. cities are limited in their ability to set policy. Can these constraints mute the impact of mayorsâ?? partisanship on policy outcomes? We hypothesize that mayoral discretion--and thus partisanshipâ??s influence--will be more pronounced in policy areas where there is the less shared authority between local, state, and federal governments. To test this hypothesis, we create a novel data set combining U.S. mayoral election returns from 1990 to 2006 with urban fiscal data. Using regression discontinuity design, we find that cities that elect a Democratic mayor spend less on public safety, a policy area where local discretion is high, than otherwise similar cities that elect a Republican or Independent. We find no differences on tax policy, social policy, and other areas that are characterized by significant overlapping authority. These results have important implications for political accountability: mayors may not be able to influence the full range of policies that are nominally local responsibilities.

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Language Access and Initiative Outcomes: Did the Voting Rights Act Influence Support for Bilingual Education? Uploaded 12-17-2009 Keywords regression discontinuity design multilevel modeling immigrant political incorporation language access elections Voting Rights Act Abstract This paper investigates one tool designed to enfranchise immigrants: foreign-language election materials. Specifically, it estimates the impact of Spanish-language assistance provided under Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act. Focusing on a California initiative on bilingual education, it tests how Spanish-language materials influenced turnout and election outcomes in Latino neighborhoods. It also considers the possibility of an anti-Spanish backlash in non-Hispanic white neighborhoods. Empirically, the analysis couples a regression discontinuity design with multilevel modeling to isolate the impact of Section 203. The analysis finds that Spanish-language assistance increased turnout and reduced support for ending bilingual education in Latino neighborhoods with many Spanish speakers. It finds hints of backlash among non-Hispanic white precincts, but not with the same certainty. The turnout finding gains additional support from multilevel regression discontinuity analyses of 2004 Latino voter turnout nationwide. For Latino citizens who speak little English, the availability of Spanish ballots increases turnout and influences election outcomes as well.