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Pauline, the Mainstream, and Political Elites: the place of race in Australian political ideology Jackman, Simon Uploaded 08-25-1997 Keywords public opinion political ideology political elites race immigration Australian politics factor analysis ideological locations density estimation plotting highest density regions Abstract An often heard claim in the current ``race debate'' is that Australia's major political parties are out of touch with ``mainstream'' Australia on issues related to race. Parallel surveys of the electorate and candidates in the 1996 Federal election allow this claim to be tested, with items tapping general ideological dispositions, but including questions about Aboriginal Australians, immigration, and links with Asia. I make three critical findings: egin{itemize} item the electorate holds quite conservative opinions on these issues relative to the candidates, and is quite distant from ALP candidates in particular; item attitudes on racial issues are a powerful component of the electorate's otherwise relatively loosely organized political ideology, so much so that any categorisation of Australian political ideology ignoring race must be considered incomplete; item racial attitudes cut across other components of the electorate's ideology, placing all the parties under internal ideological strains, but the ALP appears particularly vulnerable on this score. end{itemize} While the data show the Coalition to be the net beneficiary of the ideological tensions posed by race, the formation of Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has exposed the Coalition's vulnerability to race as a cross-cutting political issue. Racial issues thus have many characteristics of a realigning dimension in Australian politics.

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Verifying Evidence of "Congressional Enactments of Race-Gender" Grant, J. Tobin Uploaded 02-05-2007 Keywords replication verification interpretive methodology qualitative methods race gender Congress Abstract I report the results of a verification of Hawkesworth's 2003 "Congressional Enactments of Race-Gender" (CERG). This is a landmark analysis of race and gender in the U.S. Congress that is noteworthy for both its theory and its empirical evidence. A deeper look at the evidence and the context raises fundamental questions about the empirical validity of CERG's theory of race-gender in Congress. I conclude that racing-gendering in Congress is more nuanced than originally presented in CERG, and that further research is necessary to demonstrate empirically CERG's theory of Congress as a raced-gendered institution. This verification has important methodology implications, as it demonstrates why verification of empirical research -- including interpretive research -- should be a widely-practiced methodology within political science.

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Racial and Ethnic Heterogeneity and Competition in House Branton, Regina P. Jones, Bradford S. Uploaded 04-13-2001 Keywords House elections race and politics Abstract The principal focus of this paper is to examine how a U.S. House district's level of racial and ethnic heterogeneity is related to various indicators of electoral competition. Prior research examining the relationship between race and electoral competition has tended to focus on how a district's African American population is related to electoral outcomes. As much of this literature has focused on the important issue of racial redistricting, the primary interest in the distribution of the African American population has been reasonable (and appropriate given the research questions asked). The focus here is not directly on matters pertaining to redistricting and as such, we argue that the exclusive focus on black-white competition belies the fact that the United States is a considerably diverse country, in terms of the distribution of racial and ethnic minority groups. To understand how racial and ethnic heterogeneity impacts electoral competition in the House, we collected data on the distribution of whites, African Americans, Latinos, Asians, and Native Americans residing in U.S. House districts (using U.S. Census Bureau data). We then use an indicator measuring the degree of racial and ethnic fractionalization in district. This measure is used as a covariate in various models of incumbent electoral success. The data we use are longitudinal data on incumbent electoral success during the period 1972 to 1998. We estimate several models of electoral competition and find that racial and ethnic heterogeneity is associated with greater electoral volatility in primary elections and less volatility in general elections. Because minority group preferences tend toward the Democratic party, these relationships are more pronounced for Democrats than for Republicans. The implications of the differences in the kinds of districts Democrats represent compared to the kinds of districts Republicans represent are then discussed.

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Two-stage approaches to regression models in which the dependent variable is based on estimates Lewis, Jeffrey B. Uploaded 07-12-2000 Keywords heteroscedasticity weighted least squares root-n weighting politics of race Abstract Researchers often use as dependent variables quantities estimated from auxiliary data sets. Estimated dependent variables (EDV) models arise, for example, in studies where counties or states are the units of analysis and the dependent variable is an estimated mean or fraction. A new source of such EDV regressions has been created by King's ecological inference estimator cite{King:1997}. Researchers have fit regression models to quantities such as percent minority turnout that were estimated using King's EI cite{Gay:1998}. Scholars fitting EDV models have generally recognized that variation in the sampling variance of the observations on the dependent variable will induce heteroscedasticity. In this paper, I show that the most common approach to this problem, weighting the regression by the inverses of the sampling standard errors of the dependent variable, will usually lead to inefficient estimates and underestimated standard errors. I show that the degree of this inefficiency and overconfidence can be very large. I also suggest two alternative approaches that are simple to implement and more efficient and yield consistent standard error estimates.

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A Spectral Analysis of Military Expenditures: Implications for Data and Theory Gerace, Michael P. Uploaded 11-13-1999 Keywords spectral analysis military expenditures defense economics arms race Abstract This paper employs spectral analysis on the military expenditures of 7 countries across two broad time periods. The countries are the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and Japan and the periods are 1872-1913 and 1950-1991 (less Russia in the second period). Periodograms of the 13 military expenditure variables are estimated in order to evaluate the variance structure of each variable. This procedure is conducted on each variable in its trending form and after detrending (26 times in all). While the trend in the data accounts for most of the variance in the levels of the data, the importance of the trend and the length of the period defining the trend seem to be influenced by the presence of war in the data. Despite these differences, however, the trend remains the most important feature of the data. The detrended data indicate that numerous influences converge on military expenditures, as is indicated by the large number of periods with significant waves. The large number of periods in the data attest to the difficulty of estimating a parsimonious model in the time domain. The idea of extracting certain portions from the data to estimate relationships in the time domain is briefly explored.

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Cointegration and Military Rivalry: Some Evidence on 5 Modern Rivalries Gerace, Michael P. Uploaded 11-29-1999 Keywords cointegration military rivalry military expenditures arms race time series Johansen Method Abstract his article investigates the possibilities for stability in arms races, with its starting point being Richardson's discussion of stability conditions. Most discussions of stability focus on whether armaments levels become stable, but there could also be a stable relationship between the armaments of rivals. By employing a time series approach, the behavioral aspects of a model and underlying stability conditions can be related clearly to data characteristics, which clarifies the possibilities for a model. The military expenditures of 5 sets of rivals are then investigated for stationarity, the nature of the trend, and for cointegration. Whether the data are stationary and, if not, the nature of the trend, have implications for what kind of stability can exist over the long-run (or whether the models are explosive). The Johansen method is used for the cointegration tests, and VEC models are evaluated for two cases. While the results are mixed, there is some support for cointegrating relationships among rivals, there is no indication of stability in the level of expenditures or of explosive instability over the long-run.

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The Revolution Against Affirmative Action in California: Politics, Economics, and Proposition 209 Alvarez, R. Michael Butterfield, Tara L. Uploaded 04-14-1998 Keywords discrete choice endogeneity generalized extreme value affirmative action race and politics California politics Abstract We consider two possible explanations --- economic anxiety and racial division --- for the appeal of Proposition 209 to California voters during the 1996 election. To test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from teh 1996 California election. We utiliize a two--stage logit model to allow for the endogeneity of candidate endorsements. We find support for the second of our two hypotheses, which leads us to conclude that racial division fueled by a fear of arbitrary exclusion prompted voter support for Proposition 209.