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A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses (Revised, with New Evidence) Lacy, Dean Uploaded 04-20-1998 Keywords surveys nonseparable preferences question-order effects temporal instability Abstract This paper presents two models of individual-level responses to issue questions in public opinion surveys when respondents have nonseparable preferences. Both models imply that even when survey respondents have fixed preferences, their responses will change depending on the order of questions, and responses may vary over time. Results from two survey experiments reveal that question-order effects occur on issues for which people have nonseparable preferences, and order effects do not occur on issues for which most people have separable preferences.

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Non-Compulsory Voting in Australia?: what surveys can (and can't) tell us Jackman, Simon Uploaded 08-25-1997 Keywords turnout Australian politics compulsory voting political participation counter-factuals surveys non-response measurement error social-desirability heuristic question-order effects simulation parametric bootstrap Abstract Compulsory voting has come under close scrutiny in recent Australian political debate, and influential voices within the (conservative) Coalition government have called for its repeal. Conventional wisdom holds that a repeal of compulsory voting would result in a sizeable electoral boost for the Coalition; the proportion of Coalition voters who would not vote is thought to be smaller than the corresponding proportion of Labor voters. But estimates of Coalition gains under a return to voluntary turnout are quite rough-and-ready, relying on methods hampered by critical shortcomings. In this paper I focus on assessing the counter-factual of non-compulsory turnout via surveys: while turnout is compulsory in Australia, responding to surveys isn't, and the problems raised by high rates of non-response are especially pernicious in attempting to assess the counter-factual of voluntary turnout. Among survey respondents, social-desirability and question-order effects also encourage over-reports of the likelihood of voluntarily turning out. Taking non-response and measurement error into consideration, I conclude that survey-based estimates (a) significantly emph{under-estimate} the extent to which turnout would emph{decline} under a voluntary turnout regime; but (b) emph{over-estimate} the extent to which a fall in turnout would work to the advantage of the Coalition parties. Nonetheless, the larger of the Coalition parties --- the Liberal Party --- unambiguously increases its vote share under a wide range of assumptions about who does and doesn't voluntarily turnout.

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A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses Lacy, Dean Uploaded 07-11-1997 Keywords nonseparable-preferences framing experiments question-order-effects Abstract This paper presents a model of individual-level responses to issue questions in public opinion surveys when respondents have nonseparable preferences. The model implies two results: responses will change depending on the order of questions and vary over time. Each of these conclusions is consistent with empirical findings that are often cited to support the argument that people are irrational or lack fixed and well-formed preferences. Results from an experiment reveal that question-order effects occur on issues for which people have nonseparable preferences, and order effects do not occur on issues for which most people have separable preferences.