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The Consequences of Majority-Minority Districts for Representation: Evidence of Partisan Mobilization, Countermobilization and Demobilization
Brandt, Patrick T.
Bailey, Michael

Uploaded 08-21-1997
Keywords Multinomial probit
panel data methods
simulated maximum likelihood
probability simulation
Abstract Few analyses of the effects of race-based congressional redistricting have used survey data to analyze the implications of redistricting. This type of micro-level data can add significant intuition to aggregate data analysis. This paper looks at whether voters respond to redistricting by mobilizing, demobilizing, or countermobilizing using panel data from the 1990-1992 National Election Study. A 2-period vote choice model is estimated using a multiperiod multinomial probit model, and controlling for the effects of redistricting. Results show that the presence of black Democratic candidates in majority-minority districts after redistricting reduces turnout by white voters for the Democratic candidates.

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