1

Paper

Racing Horses: Constructing and Evaluating Forecasts in Political Science Brandt, Patrick Freeman, John R. Schrodt, Philip Uploaded 07-27-2011 Keywords forecasting political conflict scoring rules model training forecast density verification rank histogram probability integral transform Abstract We review methods for forecast evaluations and how they can be used in political sciences. We examine how forecast densities are more useful summaries of forecasted variables than point metrics. We also cover how continuous rank probability scores, probability integral transforms, and verification rank histograms can be used to calibrate and evaluate forecast performance. Finally, we present two illustrations, one a simulation and the other a comparison of forecasting models for the China-Taiwan (cross-straits) conflict.