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Nonparametric Priors For Ordinal Bayesian Social Science Models: Specification and Estimation Gill, Jeff Casella, George Uploaded 08-21-2008 Keywords generalized linear mixed model ordered probit Bayesian approaches nonparametric priors Dirichlet process mixture models nonparametric Bayesian inference Abstract A generalized linear mixed model, ordered probit, is used to estimate levels of stress in presidential political appointees as a means of understanding their surprisingly short tenures. A Bayesian approach is developed, where the random effects are modeled with a Dirichlet process mixture prior, allowing for useful incorporation of prior information, but retaining some vagueness in the form of the prior. Applications of Bayesian models in the social sciences are typically done with ``noninformative'' priors, although some use of informed versions exists. There has been disagreement over this, and our approach may be a step in the direction of satisfying both camps. We give a detailed description of the data, show how to implement the model, and describe some interesting conclusions. The model utilizing a nonparametric prior fits better and reveals more information in the data than standard approaches.

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Economic Perceptions and Information in a Heterogeneous Electorate Willette, Jennifer R. Uploaded 04-18-1999 Keywords economic voting ordered probit economic perceptions Abstract he relationship between vote choice and voter evaluations of national economic conditions is well established. There is little attention paid to the formation of those economic evaluations, however. This oversight is important since we know that economic perceptions are not direct reflections of objective economic conditions. To address this issue, I develop a model of economic perceptions which considers that the impact of media information on economic evaluations will differ based upon the `information capability' of the individual. I use 1992 American National Election Survey data to estimate an ordered probit model of economic perceptions allowing the impact of personal economic information and media information to vary based upon the respondents information capability. I test the hypothesis that individuals with higher information capability will give greater weight to media information when evaluating the economy. As information capability decreases, respondents will weight personal economic conditions more heavily.

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Representation and Salient Issues: Legislator Responsiveness to the Service Constituency Bennett, Sherry L. Smith, Renee M. Uploaded 04-21-1999 Keywords service constituency opinion activation U.S. trade policy ordered probit IV estimation Abstract ormal models of the supply of public policy and of information transmission between lobbyists and legislators imply that the preferences of both organized and informed, but unorganized, interests influence legislators' vote choices. Denzau and Munger (1986) refer to these citizens as a legislator's service constituency. In this paper, we provide argument and evidence to show that the concept of a service constituency is crucial to theoretical explanations and empirical investigations of a legislator's responsiveness to constituent demands on salient issues. We also provide theory and evidence to account for the process by which unorganized citizens become part of a service constituency. Our argument emphasizes the effects of interest group competition on information accessibility and opinion activation for diffuse, unorganized citizens. Our empirical evidence provides strong support for our hypotheses about opinion activation and the effects of the service constituency on legislative behavio

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Uncertainty and Candidate Personality Traits Alvarez, R. Michael Glasgow, Garrett Uploaded 04-16-1998 Keywords uncertainty direct measures of uncertainty survey response ordered probit candidate evaluation candidate traits presidential elections Abstract Recently, some scholars have focused attention on the role of uncertainty in elections (Alvarez 1997, Bartels 1986, Franklin 1991). They reveal that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the issue positions of candidates, and thus the costs of issue voting are burdensome for the average citizen. Further, this uncertainty affects how voters evaluate candidates in two ways. First, voters are less likely to evaluate a candidate in terms of an issue when they are uncertain about the candidate's position on that issue. Second, uncertainty about candidate issue positions has a negative impact on voter evaluations of a candidate. However, it is important to realize that for most individuals, information about the personality traits of candidates comes from the same sources as information about the issue positions of the candidates, generally media outlets. This means that information about the the personalities of candidates is passed through the same noisy channels as information about their issue positions, and is thus subject to the same types of distortions and biases that contribute to the cost of issue information. Although it is likely easier to interpret than issue information, trait information is still subject to uncertainty. In this paper we introduce direct survey measures of candidate personality trait uncertainty. Using survey data drawn from the 1995 and 1996 National Election Studies, we first establish that the direct measure of uncertainty used in this paper is a valid measure. We then examine the effect of trait opinions on candidate evaluations and test the effects that uncertainty about those opinions has on the use of traits in candidate evaluation.

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The "Miracle" Revisited: An Examination of The Micro-Foundations of Aggregate Public Opinion Berinsky, Adam Uploaded 08-18-1997 Keywords public opinion heteroskedastic probit ordered probit selection bias item non-response Abstract One of the best-known findings in the public opinion literature is that individual responses to survey questions, by and large, both exhibit little constraint and are highly unstable over time. One response to this bleak finding has been to search for coherence and stability at the aggregate level. Scholars who adopt this approach -- most notably Page and Shapiro (1992) -- argue that though most individuals are poorly informed about politics and may have unstable attitudes, the "miracle TRUNCATED.