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Below results based on the criteria 'multiparty elections'
Total number of records returned: 3

1
Paper
Measuring the Relative Impact of Issues and the Economy in Democratic Elections
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan
Willette, Jennifer R.

Uploaded 01-12-1999
Keywords multinomial probit
discrete choice
multiparty elections
multicandidate elections
Canadian elections
Abstract It is generally accepted that issues and economic outcomes influence elections. In this paper we analyze the relative importance of issues and the economy in Canadian elections. We estimate a model of the 1988 and 1993 Canadian elections in which we include voter evaluations of the parties on a variety of issues, and voter evaluations of the national economy and their personal finances. We demonstrate that it is possible to compare the effects of issues and the econocy on election outcomes. And we put this in the context of the impact of issues and elections in several other democracies. We show that even in elections where other factors are dominant, we can still see the impact of economic voting. And we argue that given the tenuous connection between the actions of elected officials and macroeconomic outcomes, this suggests that voters may be giving elected officials undue leeway in their non-economic policy-making functions.

2
Paper
A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data
Katz, Jonathan
King, Gary

Uploaded 07-16-1997
Keywords multiparty elections
compositional data
multivariate-t
Abstract We propose an internally consistent and comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level aggregate election data. This model can be used to explain or predict how the geographic distribution of electoral results depends upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or characteristics of the aggregate areas. We also provide several new graphical representations for help in data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. Although the model applies more generally, we use it to resolve an important controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Great Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, which are all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the incumbency advantage is about 1% for the major parties and 4% for the Liberal party and its successors. Also contrary to previous research, we show that these effects have not grown in recent years. Finally, we are able to estimate from which party each party's incumbency advantage is predominantly drawn.

3
Paper
A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data
Katz, Jonathan
King, Gary

Uploaded 04-08-1997
Keywords multiparty elections
compositional data
multivariate-t
Abstract This paper proposes an internally consistent and comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level aggregate election data. This model can be used to explain or predict how the geographic distribution of electoral results depends upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or characteristics of the aggregate areas. We also provide several new graphical representations for help in data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. The model is more general, but we apply it resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Great Britain.


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