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Below results based on the criteria 'generalized extreme value'
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Rational Expectations Coordinating Voting in American Presidential and House Elections
Mebane, Walter R.

Uploaded 07-08-1998
Keywords coordinating voting
probabilistic voting
spatial voting
retrospective voting
policy moderation
presidential elections
congressional elections
ticket splitting
rational expectations
voter equilibrium
Bayesian-Nash equilibrium
generalized extreme value model
Monte Carlo integration
maximum likelihood
Abstract I define a probabilistic model of individuals' presidential-year vote choices for President and for the House of Representatives in which there is a coordinating (Bayesian Nash) equilibrium among voters based on rational expectations each voter has about the election outcomes. I estimate the model using data from the six American National Election Study Pre-/Post-Election Surveys of years 1976--1996. The coordinating model passes a variety of tests, including a test against a majoritarian model in which there is rational ticket splitting but no coordination. The results give strong individual-level support to Alesina and Rosenthal's theory that voters balance institutions in order to moderate policy. The estimates describe vote choices that strongly emphasize the presidential candidates. I also find that a voter who says economic conditions have improved puts more weight on a discrepancy between the voter's ideal point and government policy with a Democratic President than on a discrepancy of the same size with a Republican President.

The Revolution Against Affirmative Action in California: Politics, Economics, and Proposition 209
Alvarez, R. Michael
Butterfield, Tara L.

Uploaded 04-14-1998
Keywords discrete choice
generalized extreme value
affirmative action
race and politics
California politics
Abstract We consider two possible explanations --- economic anxiety and racial division --- for the appeal of Proposition 209 to California voters during the 1996 election. To test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from teh 1996 California election. We utiliize a two--stage logit model to allow for the endogeneity of candidate endorsements. We find support for the second of our two hypotheses, which leads us to conclude that racial division fueled by a fear of arbitrary exclusion prompted voter support for Proposition 209.

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