About the Society
Papers, Posters, Syllabi
Submit an Item
Polmeth Mailing List
Below results based on the criteria 'forecast density'
Total number of records returned: 1
Racing Horses: Constructing and Evaluating Forecasts in Political Science
Freeman, John R.
verification rank histogram
probability integral transform
We review methods for forecast evaluations and how they can be used in political sciences. We examine how forecast densities are more useful summaries of forecasted variables than point metrics. We also cover how continuous rank probability scores, probability integral transforms, and verification rank histograms can be used to calibrate and evaluate forecast performance. Finally, we present two illustrations, one a simulation and the other a comparison of forecasting models for the China-Taiwan (cross-straits) conflict.