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Below results based on the criteria 'duration models'
Total number of records returned: 7

1
Paper
Stochastic Dependence in Competing Risks
Gordon, Sanford C.

Uploaded 09-05-2001
Keywords Competing risks
duration models
survival models
event history
random effects
frailty models
unobserved heterogeneity
Monte Carlo simulation
Congress
legislative position-taking
cabinet survival
numeric integration
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Abstract The term "Competing Risks" describes duration models in which spells may terminate via multiple outcomes: The term of a cabinet, for example, may end with or without an election; wars persist until the loss or victory of the aggressor. Analysts typically assume stochastic independence among risks, the duration modeling equivalent of independence of irrelevant alternatives. However, many political examples violate this assumption. I review competing risks as a latent variables approach. After discussing methods for modeling dependence that place restrictions on the nature of association, I introduce a parametric generalized dependent risks model in which inter-risk correlation may be estimated and its significance tested. The method employs risk-specific random effects drawn from a multivariate normal distribution. Estimation is conducted using numerical methods and/or Bayesian simulation. Monte Carlo simulation reveals desirable large sample properties of the estimator. Finally, I examine two applications using data on cabinet survival and legislative position taking.

2
Paper
Signals, Models, and Congressional Overrides of the Supreme Court
Zorn, Christopher
Hettinger, Virginia

Uploaded 04-05-1999
Keywords event history models
split-population duration models
Congress
Supreme Court
statutory decisions
overrides
Abstract Sparked by interest in game-theoretic representations of the separation of powers, empirical work examining congressional overrides of Supreme Court statutory decisions has burgeoned in recent years. Much of this work has been hampered, however, by the relative rarity of such events; as has long been noted, congressional attention to the Court is limited, and most Court decisions represent the last word on statutory interpretation. With this fact foremost in our minds, we examine empirically a number of theories regarding such reversals. We apply a split-population duration model to the survival of Supreme Court statutory interpretation decisions. This approach allows us to separate the factors which lead to the event itself (i.e., the presence or absence of an override in a particular case) from those which influence the timing of the event. We find that case-specific factors relating to the salience of a case are an important influence in the incidence of overrides, while Congress- and Court-specific political influences dominate the timing at which those overrides occur. By separating the incidence and timing of overrides, our results yield a more accurate and nuanced understanding of this aspect of the separation of powers system.

3
Paper
Cosponsorship Coalitions in the U.S. House of Representatives
Grant, J. Tobin
Pellegrini, Pasquale (Pat) A.

Uploaded 04-22-1998
Keywords clustering
coalitions
cosponsorship
duration models
hazard models
heterogeneity
spatial models
Abstract urrent theories and methods for studying of cosponsorship assume that the decision to cosponsor is identical to decision to vote. In this paper we develop a new theory of cosponsorship that identifies where along the ideological spectrum cosponsors of a bill are more likely to be. Moreover, we predict that members with organizational ties to the sponsor are more likely to cosponsor than other members. To test this theory, we employ a spatial duration model. This method has recently been used by geographers to estimate areas that are more likely to experience an "event." Using this technique permits a statistical test that supports our substantive hypotheses that cosponsorship coalitions are shaped by the characteristics of the location of the bill, the shared ties to the sponsor, and the policy area. In addition, more active sponsors are associated with wider and less clustered coalitions. These findings demonstrate that theories of the voting decision are not applicable to cosponsorship.

4
Paper
Strategic Position-Taking and the Timing of Voting Decisions in Congress
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.
Zorn, Christopher
Arnold, Laura W.

Uploaded 01-01-1995
Keywords timing
Congressional voting
duration models
proportional hazards
survival rate
Abstract Voting behavior is intimately linked with many of the most prominent questions of concern to students of legislatures, including the strength of legislative parties and factions, the parameters of individual decision making, and the nature of representation (Collie 1985). One critical element of voting in legislatures is the timing of various choices legislators make. The study of strategic position taking and the timing of voting decisions is important for three major reasons: it adds information about the context and sequence of decision making; the analysis more closely approximates members' strategic considerations; and finally, in contrast to most of the literature on legislative roll call voting, the process is examined rather than strictly the result. Yet, despite the importance of position taking and timing, no one has examined comprehensively this crucial aspect of timing. Research on the timing of voting decisions provides insight into theoretical questions regarding the strategic behavior of legislators, institutional constraints on member behavior, and strategies of interest group influence. The project examines the vote to ratify the North American Free Trade Agreement, which has been called ". . . the most important vote on Capital Hill since the Berlin Wall came down" (Frenzel 1994, 3).

5
Paper
Beyond Ordinary Logit: Taking Time Seriously in Binary Time-Series--Cross-Section Models
Beck, Nathaniel
Katz, Jonathan
Tucker, Richard

Uploaded 08-22-1997
Keywords binary time-series--cross-section data
logit/probit
temporal dependence
grouped duration models
complementary log-log
cubic spline
economic interdependence
democratic peace
war
Abstract Researchers typically analyze time-series--cross-section data with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS) using ordinary logit or probit. However, BTSCS observations are likely to violate the independence assumption of the ordinary logit or probit statistical model. It is well known that if the observations are temporally related that the results of an ordinary logit or probit analysis may be misleading. In this paper, we provide a simple diagnostic for temporal dependence and a simple remedy. Our remedy is based on the idea that BTSCS data is identical to grouped duration data. This remedy does not require the BTSCS analyst to acquire any further methodological skills and it can be easily implemented in any standard statistical software package. While our approach is suitable for any type of BTSCS data, we provide examples and applications from the field of International Relations, where BTSCS data is frequently used. We use our methodology to re-assess Oneal and Russett's (1997) findings regarding the relationship between economic interdependence, democracy, and peace. Our analyses show that 1) their finding that economic interdependence is associated with peace is an artifact of their failure to account for temporal dependence and 2) their finding that democracy inhibits conflict is upheld even taking duration dependence into account.

6
Paper
Covariate Functional Form in Cox Models
Keele, Luke

Uploaded 10-25-2005
Keywords Cox model
event history
survival models
splines
semi-parametric
duration models
Abstract In most event history models, the effect of a covariate on the hazard is assumed to have a log-linear functional form. For continuous covariates, this assumption is often violated as the effect is highly nonlinear. Assuming a log-linear functional form when the nonlinear form applies causes specification errors leading to erroneous statistical conclusions. Scholars can, instead of ignoring the presence of nonlinear effects, test for such nonlinearity and incorporate it into the model. I review methods to test for and model nonlinear functional forms for covariates in the Cox model. Testing for such nonlinear effects is important since such nonlinearity can appear as nonproportional hazards, but time varying terms will not correct the misspecification. I investigate the consequences of nonlinear function forms using data on international conflicts from 1950-1985. I demonstrate that the conclusions drawn from this data depend on fitting the correct functional form for the covariates.

7
Paper
A Copula Approach to the Problem of Selection Bias in Models of Government Survival
Chiba, Daina
Martin, Lanny
Stevenson, Randy

Uploaded 01-02-2014
Keywords selection bias
copula theory
duration models
government survival
government formation
Abstract Recent theories of coalition politics in parliamentary democracies suggest that government formation and survival are jointly determined outcomes. An important empirical implication of these theories is that the sample of observed governments analyzed in studies of government survival may be nonrandomly selected from the population of potential governments. This can lead to serious inferential problems. Unfortunately, current empirical models of government survival are unable to account for the possible biases arising from nonrandom selection. In this study, we use a copula-based framework to assess, and correct for, the dependence between the processes of government formation and survival. Our results suggest that existing studies of government survival, by ignoring the selection problem, significantly overstate the substantive importance of several covariates commonly included in empirical models.


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