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Analyzing the dynamics of international mediation processes Schrodt, Philip A. Gerner, Deborah J. Uploaded 07-16-2001 Keywords event data cross-correlation mediation Cox proportional hazard pattern recognition Abstract This paper presents initial results from a project that will formally test a number of the hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation, using automated coding of event data from news-wire sources. In contrast to most of the existing quantitative literature, which emphasizes the structural aspects of mediation, we will focus on the dynamics. The initial part of the paper focuses on two issues of design. First, we discuss the advantages of generating data using fully automated methods, which increases the transparency and replicability of the research. This transparency is extended to the development of more complex variables that cannot be captured as single events: these are defined as pattern of the underlying event data. We also suggest that these can be usefully studied using conventional inferential statistics rather than computational pattern recognition. Second, we justify the "statistical case study" approach which focuses on a small number of cases that are limited in geographical and temporal scope. While the risk of this approach is that one will find patterns of behavior that apply only in those circumstances, we point out that the more conventional large-N time-series cross-sectional studies also carry inferential risks. The statistical tests reported in this paper look at three different issues using data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979-1999), and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991-1999). First, cross- correlation is used to look at the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Second, we test the "sticks-or-carrots" hypothesis on whether mediation is more effective in reducing violence if accompanied by cooperative or conflictual behavior by the mediator. Finally, we estimate Cox proportional hazard models to assess the factors that influence (1) whether mediation is accepted by the parties in a conflict, (2) whether formal agreements are reached, and (3) whether the agreements reduce the level of conflict. Future work in the project involves development of a new event coding scheme specifically designed for the study of mediation, and expansion of the list of cases to include other mediated conflicts in the Middle East and West Africa.

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Analyzing the Dynamics of International Mediation Processess in the Middle East and the former Yugoslavia Gerner, Deborah J. Schrodt, Philip A. Uploaded 06-28-2001 Keywords mediation event data cross-correlation conflict Middle East Abstract This paper discusses a new National Science Foundation-funded project that will examine the dynamics of third-party international mediation using statistical time-series analyses of political event data. Third-party mediation was attempted in over half of the conflicts in the post-WWII period and it is likely that the use of mediation has increased following the end of the Cold War. Surprisingly, there have been few systematic studies on mediation. Those that do exist have generally focused on relatively static contextual factors such as the the conflict's attributes and the prior relationship between the mediator and protagonists rather than on dynamic factors' both contextual and process that may contribute to the success or failure of mediation activities. In contrast, the extensive qualitative literature provides numerous hypotheses about dynamic aspects of mediation. This, however, primarily consists of case studies, often by mediation practitioners, that exhibit little cumulation and, when taken as a whole, are rife with contradictory assertions. The project will formally test a number of the hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation, using automated coding of event data from news-wire sources and employing time-series and event- history methods. A system of specialized event codes that a sensitive to mediation activities will be developed, then events will be coded from news reports using the TABARI machine coding program. The research will look at the factors that influence (1) whether mediation is accepted by the parties in a conflict, (2) whether formal agreements are reached, and (3) whether the agreements actually reduce the level of conflict. The project will initially focus on conflicts in the Middle East, a region where the principal investigators have substantial field experience. After refining the statistical tests on the Middle East case, the analysis will be extended to event data on conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and West Africa. The paper presents the results of an empirical "plausibility probe" based on existing WEIS-coded event data for the Levant and the former Yugoslavia. It employs a simple measure of third-party mediation efforts as the independent variables and Goldstein-scaled cooperation as the dependent variable. In the Levant, we find a weak but consistent pattern of mediation correlating with past conflictual activity, and resulting in later increases in cooperation. In the former Yugoslavia, the analysis shows strikingly different results for the mediation efforts the UN, European states, and the US. All three respond to increased conflict, but the UN efforts correlate with greater conflict, the US efforts with greater cooperation, and the European efforts have no effect. These results are consistent with many of the qualitative assessments of these efforts, and suggest that the event data approach will produce credible results