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The Coalition-oriented Evolution of Vote Intentions across Regions and Levels of Political Awareness during the 1993 Canadian Election Campaign: Quotidian Markov Chain Models using Rolling Cross-section Data Wand, Jonathan Mebane, Walter R. Uploaded 08-28-1997 Keywords Markov chains rolling cross-section data macro data categorical data survey data Canadian politics strategic voting coalitions estimation Abstract We use survey data collected in Ontario and Quebec during the 1993 Canadian federal election to assess the extent to which voters were sensitive to the distribution of positions in special institutions that would possibly be created to handle negotiations between Quebec and the rest of Canada following a referendum on Quebec sovereignty expected after the election. We draw on a theory of coalition-oriented voting developed by Austin-Smith and Banks (1988) to argue that voters' anticipations regarding those institutions contributed to the catastrophic losses suffered by the Progressive Conservative party. We use a method we have developed for estimating discrete, finite-state Markov chain models from ``macro'' data to analyze the dynamics of individual choice probabilities in daily rolling cross-sectional survey data from 1993 Canadian Election Study. We allow each transition matrix to be updated as a function of daily vote support for either the Bloc or Reform to test for reactive coalition-oriented voting. We find significant reactive voting among Quebecois non-sovereigntists. The timing of these reactions depended on the individual's level of political awareness. In contrast, we find no evidence of reactive voting among either Quebecois sovereigntists or Ontario voters.

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Paper

Markov Chain Models for Rolling Cross-section Data: How Campaign Events and Political Awareness Affect Vote Intentions and Partisanship in the United States and Canada Mebane, Walter R. Wand, Jonathan Uploaded 04-07-1997 Keywords Markov chains rolling cross-section data macro data measurement error categorical data ordinal data panel data survey data party identification American politics Canadian politics estimation Abstract We use a new approach we have developed for estimating discrete, finite-state Markov chain models from ``macro'' data to analyze the dynamics of individual choice probabilities in two collections of rolling cross-sectional survey data that were designed to support investigations of what happens to voters' information and preferences during campaigns. Using data from the 1984 American National Election Studies Continuous Monitoring Study, we show that not only did individual party identification vary substantially during the year, but the dynamics of party identification changed significantly in response to the conclusion of the Democratic party's nomination contest. Party identification appears to have measurement error only when the model misspecifies the dynamics. There are rapid oscillations among some categories of partisanship that may reflect individual stances regarding not only competition between the parties but also competition among party factions. Using data from the 1993 Canadian Election Study, we show that the critical events that shaped voting intentions in the election varied tremendously depending on an individual's level of political awareness, and that the effects of awareness varied across regions of the country.