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Below results based on the criteria 'campaigns'
Total number of records returned: 13

1
Paper
Erratum for 'The Method Behind the Madness: Presidential Electoral College Strategies, 1988-96,' JOP Vol. 61, No. 4, November 1999: 893-913.
Shaw, Daron

Uploaded 07-30-2003
Keywords elections
campaigns
strategy
advertising
Abstract A recent analysis of my 1999 JOP article on Electoral College strategies identifies two important errors. In both cases, tables containing critical multivariate analyses erroneously report preliminary and methodologically inappropriate estimations that I conducted for an earlier version of the paper. The corrected results are presented here, along with some further clarifications about the variables and estimation techniques. These corrected results continue to support the central arguments of the article, although one discrepancy between the old and new findings is worth noting.

2
Paper
Optimal Campaigning in Presidential Elections: The Probability of Being Florida
Stromberg, David

Uploaded 03-07-2002
Keywords elections
political campaigns
public expenditures
Abstract This paper delivers a precise recommendation for how presidential candidates should allocate their resources to maximize the probability of gaining a majority in the Electoral College. A two-candidate, probabilistic-voting model reveals that more resources should be devoted to states which are likely to be decisive in the electoral college and, at the same time, have very close state elections. The optimal strategies are empirically estimated using state-level opinion-polls available in September of the election year. The model's recommended campaign strategies closely resemble those used in actual campaigns. The paper also analyses how the allocation of resources would change under the alternative electoral rule of a direct national vote for president.

3
Paper
Pre-Election Polls in Nation and State: A Dynamic Bayesian Hierarchical Model
Franklin, Charles

Uploaded 07-17-2001
Keywords campaigns
polling
aggregation
Bayesian
hierarchical models
Abstract A vast number of national trial heat polls are conducted in the months preceding a presidential election. But as was dramatically demonstrated in 2000, candidates must win states to win the presidency, not just win popular votes. The density of state level polling is much less than that for the nation as a whole. This makes efforts to track candidate support at the state level, and to estimate campaign effects in the states, very difficult. This paper develops a Bayesian hierarchical model of trial heat polls which uses state and national polling data, plus measures of campaign effort in each state, to estimate candidate support between observed state polls. At a technical level, the Bayesian approach provides not only estimates of support but also easily understood estimates of the uncertainty of those estimates. At an applied level, this method can allow campaigns to target polling in states that are most likely to be changing while being alerted to potential shifts in states that are not as frequently polled.

4
Paper
Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 01-01-1995
Keywords Elections
Campaigns
Perot
Multinomial Probit
Economic Voting
Angry Voters
Abstract Theory: Theories of presidential elections (economic voting and spatial issue and ideology models), combined with the popular explanation of "angry voting", are used to account for voter choice in the 1992 Presidential Election. Hypotheses: Voter choice in this three-candidate race is a function of economic perceptions, issue and ideological positions of voters and candidates, or ``voter anger.'' Methods: Multinomial probit analysis of 1992 National Election Studies data including individual-specific and alternative-specific variables. Simulations based on counterfactual scenarios of ideological positions of the candidates and of voter perceptions of the economy. Results: The economy was the dominant factor in accounting for voter decisions in 1992, and Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. While issues (mainly abortion) and ideology did play some role, Clinton was not perceived by the electorate as a ``New Democrat.'' We find little support for the hypothesis of ``angry voting.'' Last, Perot took more votes from Bush than from Clinton.

5
Paper
Studying Congressional and Gubernatorial Campaigns
Alvarez, R. Michael

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords campaigns
congressional elections
public opinionpolling
National Election Studies
Abstract This paper was presented at the recent NES Congressional Elections Research and Development Conference. I argue that the NES ought to redesign the congressional election survey so that campaigns can be studied in more depth. I provide four empirical examples from my recent research which demonstrate some of the directions the NES can take. I conclude with a series of proposals for changes to the NES survey instrument, new questions which could be included in the NES congressional election studies, and discussion about the integration of contextual data with the NES survey data.

6
Paper
Campaign Advertising and Candidate Strategy
Alvarez, R. Michael
Roberts, Reginald

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords Campaigns
television advertising
campaign strategy
negative advertising
voter learning
senate elections
gubernatorialelections
Abstract Here we present a series of preliminary analyses of data collected during the final eight weeks of two state-wide campaigns in California during 1994: the races for governor and Senate. These campaigns were hard-fought in that year, and provide an interesting laboratory in which to study intense campaigns over time, and to compare the advertising strategies between races. We first begin by presenting data from the television advertisements of these two races. Our database of television advertisements from the last eight weeks of these races gives us an unique opportunity to understand and to examine the strategies used by each campaign as they tried to get their messages through to the electorate. Then we turn to the politically relevant question --- did these advertisements matter? Did the messages the candidates send through their television advertisements influence the electorate? To answer these questions we use two sets of polling data from this election to see if these television advertisements effectively got the messages of each candidate across to the intended audience. We conclude with a discussion of our results, and with an agenda for future research.

7
Paper
Generic Tests for a Nonlinear Model of Congressional Campaign Dynamics
Mebane, Walter R.

Uploaded 08-25-1996
Keywords Congress
elections
campaigns
differential equations
Hopf bifurcation
non-nested hypothesis tests
Cox tests
bootstrap
nonlinear models
Abstract I develop a statistical model based on a generic third-order Taylor series approximation for differential equation systems that exhibit Hopf bifurcation in order to use district-level cross-sectional data to test a nonlinear dynamic formal model of campaign contributions, district service and voting during and after a U.S. House election. The statistical model represents the key nonlinearities of the formal model's Cournot-Nash equilibrium in a highly robust fashion. For data from the years 1984--85 and 1986--87, non-nested hypothesis tests (implemented using a calibrated, parametric bootstrap method) show that under assumptions of multivariate normality, the nonlinear model is vastly superior to the generic linear alternative defined by the sample mean vector and covariance matrix.

8
Paper
Generic Tests for a Nonlinear Model of Congressional Campaign Dynamics
Mebane, Walter R.

Uploaded 08-25-1996
Keywords Congress
elections
campaigns
differential equations
Hopf bifurcation
non-nested hypothesis tests
Cox tests
bootstrap
nonlinear models
Abstract I develop a statistical model based on a generic third-order Taylor series approximation for differential equation systems that exhibit Hopf bifurcation in order to use district-level cross-sectional data to test a nonlinear dynamic formal model of campaign contributions, district service and voting during and after a U.S. House election. The statistical model represents the key nonlinearities of the formal model's Cournot-Nash equilibrium in a highly robust fashion. For data from the years 1984--85 and 1986--87, non-nested hypothesis tests (implemented using a calibrated, parametric bootstrap method) show that under assumptions of multivariate normality, the nonlinear model is vastly superior to the generic linear alternative defined by the sample mean vector and covariance matrix.

9
Paper
Do Voters Learn from Presidential Election Campaigns?
Alvarez, R. Michael
Glasgow, Garrett

Uploaded 10-27-1997
Keywords random effects panel models
content analysis
presidential election campaigns
voter decisionmaking
voter learning
Abstract We present a model of voter campaign learning which is based on Bayesian learning models. This model assumes voters are imperfectly informed and that they incorporate new information into their existing perceptions about candidate issue positions in a systematic manner. Additional information made available to voters about candidate issue positions during the course of a political campaign will lead voters to have more precise perceptions of the issue positions of the candidates involved. We use panel survey data from the 1976 and 1980 presidental elections, combined with content analyses of the media during these same elections. Our primary analysis is conducted using random effects panel models. We find that during each of these campaigns many voters became better informed about the positions of candidates on many issues and that these changes in voter information are directly related to the information flow during each presidential campaign.

10
Paper
Why Study Only Presidential Campaigns? Statewide Races as a Laboratory for Campaign Analysis
Alvarez, R. Michael

Uploaded 06-19-1997
Keywords presidential campaigns
statewide campaigns
campaign dynamics
voter learning
study design
case studies
Abstract Political campaigns play a central role in democratic politics since they are an important source of contact between citizens and voters. But the literature has been quite pessimistic about whether political campaigns can influence the preferences and behavior of voters. In this paper I argue that one of the primary reasons for this pessimism stems from the consistent and lasting focus on presidential campaigns. While presidential campaigns are an important aspect of the American political process, they make poor laboratories for the study of campaigns. Instead I argue that statewide political campaigns provide a much better laboratory for the study of campaigns. The paper presents a series of empirical analyses of statewide campaigns and concludes with a discussion of different designs for the study of statewide campaigns.

11
Paper
Learning from the Campaign Context: Multivariate Matching with Exposure
Christenson, Dino

Uploaded 07-14-2008
Keywords multivariate matching
non-bipartite matching
signed rank test
sensitivity analysis
political information
presidential campaigns
Abstract PolMeth XXV poster.

12
Paper
Investigate at extreme right : Between total immersion and participant observations, the example of French National Front (2006-2008)
Mermat, Djamel

Uploaded 07-18-2008
Keywords France
Far right
electoral campaigns
Methodology
Immersion
Participant observation
Political party.
Abstract There is a particular situation involving the NF that has been noticeably neglected to date in France: the capture live of the motivations and actions of these new partisans who rallied to the movement during the last three years (Glenn, 2005: 35-43). We must also recognize that enabling us to understand this party in "campaigning mode," there is insufficient knowledge. Nonetheless, if we hope to remedy these basic two weaknesses, what methods could researchers employ? Consequently, what can political science methodology eventually learn from an adjustment in the status of the researcher on the ground and at the time of the inquiry? More precisely: what advantages do participant observation employed almost daily offer? What are the basic contributions of total immersion in the "Frontist" environment? Given these questions, we wanted, based on comparative qualitative research, to explain what fund the validity of the results obtained (Kent, 2001), through establishing a cost-benefit analysis of the use of two different methods, of two inherently quite distinct presentations. Indeed, the result very rarely mentions the researcher's many ups and downs. However, the successes and inevitable failures of the ethnographic investigation condition the nature of the data collected. Therefore, this is an attempt to address several methodological deficiencies or silences, and to reverse certain epistemological biases, through returning to concepts whose substance needs clarification: "participant observation," "empathy," "total immersion," and "infiltration." All the underpinnings of the research do, however, draw attention to the manner in which the political analyst created his methodology and analytical categories, as well as his own approach to the subject under study. As a result, at first we will emphasize the difference in scale between our two research fields, since it led to our adoption of another approach to the subject (I). Thus, we first chose as our research location the North Flanders Federation from June 2006 to the start of November 2007, the beginning of the presidential campaign, up to the presentation of the assessment of the local councillors. Still, from the month of June 2007, and without abandoning our initial site, we progressively accorded increasing attention to the "new partisans" supporting Marine Le Pen and Steeve Briois in the 14th constituency of Pas-de-Calais, in particular in the city of Henin-Beaumont. In the first week of December 2007, this led us to commence our exploration of the diversity of actors of the General Headquarters of the "Henin-Beaumont pour Vous" list campaign. Henin-Beaumont belongs to the Federation of Mayors of Mid-Sized Cities. Well, to date, no study on the NF has been interested in its "propaganda" strategy (Kalinowski, 2005) for a mid-sized city and during an election campaign, even less for a municipal. The idea was to slide, over a period of several weeks from Flanders to Pas-de-Calais, from the status of participant observer outside of the group, to that of active member at the periphery of the central group, thus, integrated in the group (Strauss, Corbin, and Soulet, 2004). This process offered the researcher the opportunity to situate himself somewhere between simply "taking part" and being "uncovered." Thus, the necessity of reacting, at the spur of the moment, when confronted with the unexpected (II), was the most challenging aspect. Moreover, it is this absence, of a recent localized investigation through direct observation over an extended period, of a political enterprise still provoking concerns and anathemas that propelled us to study what the FN electoral campaigns do to the researcher and his analytical tools.

13
Paper
Exploiting a Rare Shift in Communication Flows to Document News Media Persuasion: The 1997 United Kingdom General Election
Ladd, Jonathan
Lenz, Gabriel

Uploaded 07-30-2008
Keywords Media persuasion
endorsements
campaigns
elections
matching
causal inference
Abstract Using panel data and matching techniques, we exploit a rare change in communication flows -- the endorsement switch to the Labour Party by several prominent British newspapers before the 1997 United Kingdom general election -- to study the persuasive power of the news media. These unusual events provide an opportunity to test for news media persuasion while avoiding methodological pitfalls that have plagued previous studies. By comparing readers of newspapers that switched endorsements to similar individuals who did not read these newspapers, we estimate that these papers persuaded a considerable share of their readers to vote for Labour. Depending on the statistical approach, the point estimates vary from about 10 percent to as high as 25 percent of readers. These findings provide rare, compelling evidence that the news media exert a powerful influence on mass political behavior.


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