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Below results based on the criteria 'Prisoner'
Total number of records returned: 909

1
Paper
Shaken, Not Stirred: Evidence on Ballot Order Effects from the California Alphabet Lottery, 1978 - 2002
Ho, Daniel E.
Imai, Kosuke

Uploaded 02-02-2004
Keywords ballots
elections
causal inference
natural experiment
randomization
fisher test
partisan cue
Abstract We analyze a natural experiment to answer the longstanding question of whether the name order of candidates on ballots affects election outcomes. Since 1975, California law has mandated randomizing the ballot order with a lottery, where alphabet letters would be shaken vigorously and selected from a container. Previous studies, relying overwhelmingly on non-randomized data, have yielded conflicting results about whether ballot order effects even exist. Using improved statistical methods, our analysis of statewide elections from 1978 to 2002 reveals that in general elections ballot order has a significant impact only on minor party candidates and candidates for nonpartisan offices. In primaries, however, being listed first benefits everyone. In fact, ballot order might have changed the winner in roughly nine percent of all primary races examined. These results are largely consistent with a theory of partisan cuing. We propose that all electoral jurisdictions randomize ballot order to minimize ballot effects.

2
Paper
Empirical Modeling Strategies for Spatial Interdependence: Omitted-Variable vs. Simultaneity Biases
Hays, Jude
Franzese, Robert

Uploaded 07-24-2004
Keywords Spatial Lag Models
Diffusion
Omitted Variable Bias
Simultaneity Bias
Abstract Scholars recognize that time-series-cross-section data typically correlate across time and space, yet they tend to model temporal dependence directly while addressing spatial interdependence solely as nuisance to be “corrected” (FGLS) or to which to be “robust” (PCSE). We demonstrate that directly modeling spatial interdependence is methodologically superior, offering efficiency gains and generally helping avoid biased estimates even of “non-spatial” effects. We first specify empirical models representing two modern approaches to comparative and international political economy: (context-conditional) open-economy comparative political-economy (i.e., common stimuli, varying responses) and international political-economy, which implies interdependence (plus closed-economy and orthogonal-open-economy predecessors). Then we evaluate four estimators—non-spatial OLS, spatial OLS, spatial 2SLS-IV, and spatial ML—for analyzing such models in spatially interdependent data. Non-spatial OLS suffers from potentially severe omitted-variable bias, tending to inflate estimates of common-stimuli effects especially. Spatial OLS, which specifies interdependence directly via spatial lags, dramatically improves estimates but suffers a simultaneity bias, which can be appreciable under strong interdependence. Spatial 2SLS-IV, which instruments for spatial lags of dependent variables with spatial lags of independent variables, yields unbiased and reasonably efficient estimates of both common-stimuli and diffusion effects, when its conditions hold: large samples and fully exogenous instruments. A tradeoff thus arises in practice between biased-but-efficient spatial OLS and consistent- (or, at least, less-biased-) but-inefficient spatial 2SLS-IV. Spatial ML produces good estimates of non-spatial effects under all conditions but is computationally demanding and tends to underestimate the strength of interdependence, appreciably so in small-N samples and when the true diffusion-strength is modest. We also explore the standard-error estimates from these four procedures, finding sizable inaccuracies by each estimator under differing conditions, and PCSE’s do not necessarily reduce these inaccuracies. By an accuracy-of-reported-standard-errors criterion, 2SLS-IV seems to dominate. Finally, we explore the spatial 2SLS-IV estimator under varying patterns of interdependence and endogeneity, finding that its estimates of diffusion strength suffer only when a condition we call cross-spatial endogeneity, wherein dependent variables (y’s) in some units cause explanatory variables (x’s) in others, prevails.

3
Paper
Negotiated Compliance: Social Solutions to the 'Principal's Problem'
Whitford, Andrew B.
Miller, Gary J.
Bottom, William P.

Uploaded 07-11-2003
Keywords principal-agency theory
experiments
incentives
trust
hierarchical logit
Abstract Principal-agency theory has typically analyzed the principal's problem1: how to write a contract with incentives that will induce an agent to provide the principal with the maximum feasible expected gain. In practice, principal-agent contracts are typically negotiated, not imposed. Experiments indicate that agent compliance is determined less by the negotiated terms of the contract than by expectations created by the negotiation process itself. We interpret this as justification for a renewed interest in the politics of negotiation and bureaucratic politics.

4
Paper
Designing Tests of the Supreme Court and the Separation of Powers
Sala, Brian R.
Spriggs II, James F.

Uploaded 09-13-2002
Keywords spatial voting theory
strategic behavior
Supreme Court
Abstract While "rational choice" models of Supreme Court decision making have enhanced our appreciation for the separation of powers built into the Madisonian Constitutional design, convincing empirical support for a separation-of-powers (SOP) constraint on justices' behavior has been elusive. We apply a standard spatial voting model to identify circumstances in which "Attitudinalist" and SOP predictions about justices' behavior diverge. Our reconsideration of the theory indicates that prior efforts to test quantitatively the two models have been biased by having included cases for which the two models' predictions do not differ. While our more focused test offers a fairer test of the SOP constraint, the results strongly reject the SOP model. Nonetheless, our analysis provides leverage on this issue by: (1) delineating and executing necessary research design protocols for crafting a critical test of the SOP model; and (2) rejecting the two exogenously fixed alternative SOP model and suggesting avenues for future research.

5
Paper
Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data, with an Application to the Elian Effect in Florida
Mebane, Walter R.
Sekhon, Jasjeet

Uploaded 07-12-2002
Keywords robust estimation
overdispersed multinomial regression
Abstract We develop a robust estimation method for regression models for vectors of counts (overdispersed multinomial models). The method requires only that the model is good for most---not all---of the observed data, and it identifies outliers. A Monte Carlo sampling experiment shows that the robust method can produce consistent parameter estimates and correct statistical inferences even when ten percent of the data are generated by a significantly different process, where nonrobust maximum likelihood estimation fails. We analyze Florida county vote data from the 2000 presidential election, considering votes for five categories of presidential candidates (Buchanan, Nader, Gore, Bush and ``other''), focusing on Cuban-Americans' reactions to the Elian Gonzalez affair. We replicate results regarding Buchanan's vote in Palm Beach County. We use Census tract data within Miami-Dade County to confirm the need to take the Cuban-American population explicitly into account. The analysis illustrates how the robust method can support triangulation to verify whether a regression specification is adequate.

6
Paper
Entropy optimization: computer implementation of the MaxEnt and MinxEnt principles
Veiga, Alvaro
Mattos, Rogerio

Uploaded 09-01-2004
Keywords entropy optimization
Shannon's measure
Kullback's measure
ecological inference
MaxEnt
MinxEnt
Abstract The entropy optimization principles MaxEnt of Jaynes (1957a,b) and MinxEnt of Kullback (1959) can be used in a variety of scientific fields. Among many possible applications, the principles are suitable to tackle the ecological inference problem that often shows up in social science research. Formally, both principles involve the constrained optimization of entropy measures that are intrinsically nonlinear functions of probabilities. Since each is a nonlinear programming problem, the solutions to both depend on iterative search algorithms. In addition, the constraints that probabilities are non–negative and sum up to one restrict in a particular way the solution space. The paper presents in detail a computer efficient implementation of those two principles in the linearly constrained case that makes a prior check for the existence of solution to the optimization problems. A description, made with the aid of two flowcharts, of an algorithm allows interested researchers to develop computer codes in practically any language. The authors also make available their own, easy–to–use codes written in MatLab.

7
Paper
How Factual is your Counterfactual?
King, Gary
Zeng, Langche

Uploaded 07-12-2001
Keywords counterfactual
causality
forecasting
democracy
Abstract Inferences about counterfactuals are essential for prediction, answering ``what if'' questions, and estimating causal effects. However, when the counterfactuals posed are too far from the data at hand, conclusions drawn from well-specified statistical analyses become based on speculation and convenient but indefensible model assumptions rather than empirical evidence. Yet, standard model outputs do not reveal the degree of model-dependence, and so this problem can be hard to detect, regardless of its severity. We develop easy-to-apply methods to evaluate counterfactuals that do not require sensitivity testing over specified classes of models. One analysis with these methods applies to the class of all models, for any smooth conditional expectation function, and to the set of all possible dependent variables, given only the choice of a set of explanatory variables. We illustrate by studying the scholarly literatures that try to assess the effects of changes in the degree of democracy in a country (on any dependent variable); we find widespread evidence that scholars are inadvertently drawing conclusions based more on their hypotheses than on their empirical evidence.

8
Paper
Uncertainty and American Public Opinion
Alvarez, R. Michael
Brehm, John
Wison, Catherine

Uploaded 04-14-2001
Keywords uncertainty
opinion
Abstract In this paper we describe three distinct causes (uncertainty, ambivalence and equivocation) of individual level variation in responses to survey questions soliciting opinion on public policy issues. We evaluate the predictive power of these causes using the heteroscedastic probit model, an inferential statistical technique that is well-suited to the study of variability in public opinion. We estimate this model using survey data on four public policy issues: abortion, affirmative action, school prayer and english-only mandates. Our results indicate that for these policy issues individual uncertainty is the primary cause of survey response variability.

9
Paper
Binding the Frame: How Important are Frames for Survey Response?
Alvarez, R. Michael
Brehm, John

Uploaded 08-26-2000
Keywords framing
survey experiments
heteroskedastic choice
Abstract [not transcribed]

10
Paper
Two-stage approaches to regression models in which the dependent variable is based on estimates
Lewis, Jeffrey B.

Uploaded 07-12-2000
Keywords heteroscedasticity
weighted least squares
root-n weighting
politics of race
Abstract Researchers often use as dependent variables quantities estimated from auxiliary data sets. Estimated dependent variables (EDV) models arise, for example, in studies where counties or states are the units of analysis and the dependent variable is an estimated mean or fraction. A new source of such EDV regressions has been created by King's ecological inference estimator cite{King:1997}. Researchers have fit regression models to quantities such as percent minority turnout that were estimated using King's EI cite{Gay:1998}. Scholars fitting EDV models have generally recognized that variation in the sampling variance of the observations on the dependent variable will induce heteroscedasticity. In this paper, I show that the most common approach to this problem, weighting the regression by the inverses of the sampling standard errors of the dependent variable, will usually lead to inefficient estimates and underestimated standard errors. I show that the degree of this inefficiency and overconfidence can be very large. I also suggest two alternative approaches that are simple to implement and more efficient and yield consistent standard error estimates.

11
Paper
The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Third-Party Candidates in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1968-1996
Lacy, Dean
Burden, Barry C.

Uploaded 03-03-2000
Keywords vote choice
turnout
third parties
multinomial probit
Abstract A multinomial probit model of electoral choice in the 1968, 1980, 1992, and 1996 U.S. presidential elections, estimated using data from the American National Election Studies, reveals similarities and differences in electoral support for George Wallace, John Anderson, and Ross Perot. Estimates from the models are used to simulate the outcomes of the elections in the absence of the third-party candidate and under full turnout. In three of the four elections, the third-party candidates stole more votes from the challengers than from the incumbents. Only in 1996 did the third-party candidate take more votes away from the incumbent than the challenger. None of the four third-party candidacies increased turnout by more than 2.3 percentage points, and Perot's 1996 candidacy had the smallest impact on turnout of all of the third-party candidacies. Under full turnout, the outcome of only one election - 1968 - may have changed. All four third-party candidates increase their vote share under full turnout, and Democratic candidates gain vote share under full turnout in all elections except 1980. The paper also describes a new method for estimating the error variances and covariances in an MNP model.

12
Paper
The Two-Level Inference Problem and the Confirmation of Theories
Clarke, Kevin A.

Uploaded 04-05-1999
Keywords testing
inference
Vuong
Bayes
Neyman-Pearson
Abstract In this paper, I argue that the hypothetico-deductive model of theory testing creates a two-level inference problem for quantitative studies of world politics. Theory testing under this model requires an inference from the data to the derived hypothesis and then a second inference from the derived hypothesis to the theory. The logic of this inferential structure denies the possibility of theory testing in a falsificationist setting and paradoxically permits only falsification in a confirmationist setting (whether naive or Bayesian). Defeating the two-level problem requires statements that assert if and only if the theory is true is the hypothesis true and if and only if the hypothesis is true will the data follow an expected pattern. The only hope for making such statements lies in comparing our theories with specific rivals. I point out that this move is consistent with "fallen" Bayesianism and the major tenet of post-positivist thought. Finally, I suggest two tests that allow this kind of comparison and, through an example, demonstrate that these abstract ideas have real consequences for the practice of quantitative research in world politics.

13
Paper
Representation and Salient Issues: Legislator Responsiveness to the Service Constituency
Bennett, Sherry L.
Smith, Renee M.

Uploaded 04-21-1999
Keywords service constituency
opinion activation
U.S. trade policy
ordered probit
IV estimation
Abstract ormal models of the supply of public policy and of information transmission between lobbyists and legislators imply that the preferences of both organized and informed, but unorganized, interests influence legislators' vote choices. Denzau and Munger (1986) refer to these citizens as a legislator's service constituency. In this paper, we provide argument and evidence to show that the concept of a service constituency is crucial to theoretical explanations and empirical investigations of a legislator's responsiveness to constituent demands on salient issues. We also provide theory and evidence to account for the process by which unorganized citizens become part of a service constituency. Our argument emphasizes the effects of interest group competition on information accessibility and opinion activation for diffuse, unorganized citizens. Our empirical evidence provides strong support for our hypotheses about opinion activation and the effects of the service constituency on legislative behavio

14
Paper
The Political Economy of Non-Tariff Trade Barriers: A Test of the Veto Players Theory of Policy Change
Kotin, Daniel

Uploaded 07-13-1999
Keywords cross-sectional time-series
missing data
Abstract This paper tests George Tsebelis's (1995) veto players model of policy stability, as applied to international trade policy. The veto players model argues that policy change is more difficult with the number of political actors that can veto such change, their ideological polarization, and (for collective veto players) their cohesion. I test this model's ability to predict the variation in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to international trade for 16 industrial democracies, over the period 1981-94. Such barriers may be becoming increasingly attractive to states seeking to maintain trade protection in the face of secular declines in tariff rates. In a regression model controlling for economic factors and other domestic political influences on NTBs, such as politicians' trade policy preferences, minority government, and constituency pressures, I find support for Tsebelis's theory: Governments in the sample that are more polarized on the trade policy dimension are less able to change NTB policy. This finding holds despite the presence of a significant amount of missing data on the dependent variable, which consists of first differences taken across missing years, according to an alternative model in which the missing NTB levels are imputed via interpolation, and from which the first differences are then computed. Although more NTB data is needed to verify them, these preliminary results add to a growing body of literature finding empirical support for the veto players theory.

15
Paper
Getting the Odds Right: Casino Gaming Diffusion, the Initiative Process and Expected Voter Support
Boehmke, Frederick

Uploaded 10-27-1999
Keywords Initiative
direct democracy
interest groups
lobbying
event history
casino gaming
formal model
Abstract In this paper I develop and test a formal model of the role that the initiative process plays in shaping policy outcomes. By introducing uncertainty over the median voter's ideal point, I show that the possibility of proposing an initiative makes it cheaper for an interest group to change policy, both through the initiative process and by using contributions to convince the legislature to change policy. By also allowing groups to use information drawn from neighboring states' adoptions to estimate the probability an initiative would pass, I show that policy diffusion should function primarily as information diffusion between initiative states. The predictions of the model are then tested through an event history analysis of state casino gaming legalizations. The initiative process is found to be a positive and significant predictor of adoption and its effect is increased by voter liberalism. There is strong support for the informational approach to diffusion with a positive flow between initiative states and none from or to non-initiative states.

16
Paper
The Revolution Against Affirmative Action in California: Politics, Economics, and Proposition 209
Alvarez, R. Michael
Butterfield, Tara L.

Uploaded 04-14-1998
Keywords discrete choice
endogeneity
generalized extreme value
affirmative action
race and politics
California politics
Abstract We consider two possible explanations --- economic anxiety and racial division --- for the appeal of Proposition 209 to California voters during the 1996 election. To test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from teh 1996 California election. We utiliize a two--stage logit model to allow for the endogeneity of candidate endorsements. We find support for the second of our two hypotheses, which leads us to conclude that racial division fueled by a fear of arbitrary exclusion prompted voter support for Proposition 209.

17
Paper
The Presidential Election of 1988: Low Voter Turnout and the Defeat of Michael Dukakis
Herron, Michael C.

Uploaded 05-18-1998
Keywords turnout
abstention
1988 election
Heckman model
Abstract This paper studies voting and abstention in the 1988 presidential election and in particular focuses on one of the election's more noteworthy features: voter turnout in 1988 was 50.1%, low even by American presidential election standards. In light of such a low turnout rate, we ask the following two questions: did low voter turnout in 1988 harm the Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis or his Republican counterpart George Bush? And, if the full franchise had voted in 1988, who would have won the election? According to our estimates, individuals who abstained from voting in 1988 were primarily supporters of Dukakis, and we find that Dukakis would almost certainly have won the 1988 election had the full franchise voted. The bottom line is that Bush greatly benefited from low voter turnout, and we conclude that, on account of the dismal turnout rate, the 1988 election outcome was not representative of average citizen preferences. Our findings, based on data from the 1988 American National Election Study, are consonant with other turnout--related research, in particular Radcliff's aggregate study of presidential elections from 1928 to 1980. In contrast with Radcliff's analysis, though, this paper's use of individual--level as opposed to aggregate data allows us to describe the key determinants of voting and abstention in 1988. Our results highlight the deleterious consequences of low voter turnout and imply that efforts to stimulate voting may improve the likelihood that presidential election outcomes are representative of citizen, as opposed to solely voter, preferences.

18
Paper
A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Campaign Contributions in Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives
Himmelberg, Charles P.
Wawro, Gregory

Uploaded 07-17-1998
Keywords campaign finance
panel data methods
dynamics
GMM estimators
censoring
Abstract Political scientists have recognized the importance of dynamics in understanding the role of campaign finance in congressional elections. Yet for the most part, researchers have not exploited available data to its fullest or used appropriate methods to answer questions of interest. Though the Federal Election Commission's reporting and disclosure requirements enable us to use panel data models, researchers have ignored these powerful tools. One of the main advantages of panel data methods is that they enable us to account for unobserved individual and temporal effects that, if not accounted for, might lead us to incorrect inferences. In this paper we describe the problems with estimating dynamic panel models and discuss techniques that correct for these problems. We apply recently developed panel data methods to estimate a dynamic model of campaign finance and assess the usefulness of these methods by examining the robustness of results obtained with more traditional methods. We examine the relationship between past and current campaign contributions to incumbents and challengers during the 1986 through 1992 election cycles. Dynamic panel estimators give results that differ in substantively interesting ways from those given by standard estimators. In particular, the estimates obtained from dynamic panel methods suggest that challengers who are successful fundraisers can cut into the fundraising efforts of incumbents.

19
Paper
Direction and Intensity of Russian Macroeconomic Evaluations
Jones, Bradford S.
Willerton, John P.
Sobel, Michael E.

Uploaded 08-30-1998
Keywords Russia
public opinion
log linear models
Abstract The Russian macroeconomy has exhibited volatility since the transformation from the Soviet Union to the Russian Federation. Much is known about the Russian public opinion climate during the end of the Soviet era and the beginning of the Russian Federation era; however, less well understood is the nature of Russians' macroeconomic evaluations during this on-going transformation. In this paper, we analyze Russians' assessments of the macroeconomy using Russian public opinion data asking respondents to assess the Russian national economy. We establish four testable hypotheses. First, we hypothesize that the direction of Russian opinion will be asymmetrically more negative than positive across all periods in the study. Second, we hypothesize that economic assessments will vary by residential region. Specifically, we contend the response distribution for respondents from Moscow and St. Petersburg (MSP) will differ from respondents from other residential regions. Third (and related to the second), we hypothesize that the response distributions for MSP respondents will be temporally heterogenous while the response distribution for respondents outside MSP will be temporally homogenous. Fourth, we hypothesize that despite the poor performance of the economy during the Russian Federation transition, Russian public opinion will not exhibit extreme negativity in macroeconomic evaluations. Using published survey data collected from the bi -monthly extsl{Russian Public Opinion Monitor} conducted by the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (VCIOM), for the period January 1994 to July 1996, we examine both the direction and intensity of Russian opinion toward the state of the national economy by estimating the distribution on the response variable using an adjacent category logit model (Jones and Sobel 1998, Sobel 1995, 1997, 1998). From our analysis, we find first that the direction of Russians' evaluation of the macroeconomy is consistently negative rather than positive---a finding that corroborates extant research; however, the directional nature of economic assessments displays significant residential variation between MSP and the rest of the country. Second, we find significant residential variation in economic assessments. Specifically, the response distribution for MSP respondents can be distinguished from the response distribution from respondents in other residential regions, and also, the response distribution for MSP respondents displays considerable temporal heterogeneity. We argue this variability tends to follow changes in the macroeconomic and political environments. Third, we do not find support for the hypothesis of temporal homogeneity in the response distribution for respondents outside of MSP. Nevertheless, residents in other cities and in rural regions seem not to be as responsive to macroeconomic changes over the period, thus eliciting milder temporal variability than MSP respondents. Fourth, we find that in terms of the response distribution, the intensity of Russian pessimism (or optimism) is extsl{not} extreme.

20
Paper
Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 01-01-1995
Keywords Elections
Campaigns
Perot
Multinomial Probit
Economic Voting
Angry Voters
Abstract Theory: Theories of presidential elections (economic voting and spatial issue and ideology models), combined with the popular explanation of "angry voting", are used to account for voter choice in the 1992 Presidential Election. Hypotheses: Voter choice in this three-candidate race is a function of economic perceptions, issue and ideological positions of voters and candidates, or ``voter anger.'' Methods: Multinomial probit analysis of 1992 National Election Studies data including individual-specific and alternative-specific variables. Simulations based on counterfactual scenarios of ideological positions of the candidates and of voter perceptions of the economy. Results: The economy was the dominant factor in accounting for voter decisions in 1992, and Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. While issues (mainly abortion) and ideology did play some role, Clinton was not perceived by the electorate as a ``New Democrat.'' We find little support for the hypothesis of ``angry voting.'' Last, Perot took more votes from Bush than from Clinton.

21
Paper
Competing Redistricting Plans as Evidence of Political Motives:The North Carolina Case
Gronke, Paul
Wilson, J. Matthew

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords redistricting
congress
judgeit
Abstract Redistricting is a thoroughly political act, but the political strategies of the various actors have often been lost in legal and representational arguments. While not discounting the importance of these issues, this paper looks at one set of actors in redistricting --- state legislators --- and examines how they might pursue their own interests during redistricting. Using the 1992 redistricting in North Carolina as a preliminary case study, the paper presents a brief description of the redistricting process, describes the particular circumstances in the state, and presents some comparative analyses of eight redistricting plans. Our findings indicate that members sought to balance individual and partisan interests when proposing plans and that, at least sometimes, individual ambition outweighed partisan loyalty.

22
Paper
Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.
De Boef, Suzanna

Uploaded 08-22-1996
Keywords partisanship
ideology
Granger causality
Haugh-Pierce tests
fractional integration
Abstract The relationship between partisan and ideological movements in the electorate has largely gone uninvestigated (but see Box-Steffensmeier, Knight, and Sigelman 1996) We investigate the relationship between macropartisanship and macroideology over time by subgroups within the populations. We focus on particular on groups that are more or less politically sophisticated. We use CBS and New York Times survey data on partisanship and ideology. Our evidence suggests that there is a relationship between ideology and partisanship and that the more politically sophisticated the respondent, the more closely related are the series over time. Adults that answer both questions, as well as higher educated respondents, more often get ideology and partisanship "right." That is, they claim to be Democrats and liberals or Republicans and conservatives. We can reject independence more clearly as the level of education goes up as well. In addition to the increased level of political sophistication that characterizes those for whom the series are linked, these adults are more likely by wide margins, to have claimed to have voted than less sophisticated adults. Thus, any linkage has political implications. The incentives for politicans to link popular ideological sentiment with partisanship are strong. The people who put them in office (or kick them out) are the same folks who connect ideology and partisanship and who pay attention to politics.

23
Paper
Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys
Gelman, Andrew
King, Gary
Liu, Chuanhai

Uploaded 10-27-1997
Keywords Bayesian inference
cluster sampling
diagnostics
hierarchical models
ignorable nonresponse
missing data
political science
sample surveys
stratified sampling
multiple imputation
Abstract We present a method of analyzing a series of independent cross-sectional surveys in which some questions are not answered in some surveys and some respondents do not answer some of the questions posed. The method is also applicable to a single survey in which different questions are asked, or different sampling methods used, in different strata or clusters. Our method involves multiply-imputing the missing items and questions by adding to existing methods of imputation designed for single surveys a hierarchical regression model that allows covariates at the individual and survey levels. Information from survey weights is exploited by including in the analysis the variables on which the weights were based, and then reweighting individual responses (observed and imputed) to estimate population quantities. We also develop diagnostics for checking the fit of the imputation model based on comparing imputed to non-imputed data. We illustrate with the example that motivated this project --- a study of pre-election public opinion polls, in which not all the questions of interest are asked in all the surveys, so that it is infeasible to impute each survey separately.

24
Paper
Beyond Ordinary Logit: Taking Time Seriously in Binary Time-Series--Cross-Section Models
Beck, Nathaniel
Katz, Jonathan
Tucker, Richard

Uploaded 08-22-1997
Keywords binary time-series--cross-section data
logit/probit
temporal dependence
grouped duration models
complementary log-log
cubic spline
economic interdependence
democratic peace
war
Abstract Researchers typically analyze time-series--cross-section data with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS) using ordinary logit or probit. However, BTSCS observations are likely to violate the independence assumption of the ordinary logit or probit statistical model. It is well known that if the observations are temporally related that the results of an ordinary logit or probit analysis may be misleading. In this paper, we provide a simple diagnostic for temporal dependence and a simple remedy. Our remedy is based on the idea that BTSCS data is identical to grouped duration data. This remedy does not require the BTSCS analyst to acquire any further methodological skills and it can be easily implemented in any standard statistical software package. While our approach is suitable for any type of BTSCS data, we provide examples and applications from the field of International Relations, where BTSCS data is frequently used. We use our methodology to re-assess Oneal and Russett's (1997) findings regarding the relationship between economic interdependence, democracy, and peace. Our analyses show that 1) their finding that economic interdependence is associated with peace is an artifact of their failure to account for temporal dependence and 2) their finding that democracy inhibits conflict is upheld even taking duration dependence into account.

25
Paper
Indecision Theory: An Informational Model of Roll-Off
Katz, Jonathan
Ghirardato, Paolo

Uploaded 08-05-1997
Keywords voting
formal theory
decision theory
uncertainty
abstention
Abstract We address the so-called "roll-off" phenomenon: Selective abstention in multiple elections. We present a discuss a novel model of decision making by voters that explains this as a result of differences in quality and quantity of information that the voters have about each election. In doing so we use a spatial model that differs from the Euclidean one, and is more naturally applied to modeling differences in information.

26
Paper
Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data: Time Dependence and Aggregation Bias in Event Process Models
Alt, James E.
King, Gary
Signorino, Curtis S.

Uploaded 06-28-1997
Keywords event process
exponential
gamma
time dependence
aggregation
Abstract Binary, count, and duration data all code for discrete events occurring at points in time. Although a single data generation process can produce any of these three data types, the statistical literature is not very helpful in providing methods to estimate parameters of the same process from each. In fact, only a single theoretical process exists for which known statistical methods can estimate the same parameters --- and it is generally limited to count and duration data. The result is that seemingly trivial decisions about which level of data to use can have important consequences for substantive interpretations. We describe the theoretical event process for which results exist, based on time-independence. We also derive a new set of models for a time-dependent process and compare their predictions to those of a commonly used model. Any hope of avoiding the more serious problems of aggregation bias in events data is contingent on first deriving a much wider arsenal of statistical models and theoretical processes that are not constrained by the particular forms of data that happen to be available.

27
Paper
The Changing Economic Preferences of the American Public: 1976-1991
Sekhon, Jasjeet

Uploaded 03-28-1997
Keywords Macroeconomic Preferences
Monetary Policy
Hermite Polynomials
Splines
Bootstrap
Abstract I show that the public indeed does have coherent preferences over macroeconomic tradeoffs, and these preferences have changed in ways consistent with not only economic theory but also with the changes which occurred in the American political system during the 1980s. In particular, most people learned something new about the state of the world in the late 1970s, and began to reject classical Keynesian explanations about economic reality. Individuals were becoming more sympathetic to the economic platform of the Republican party---i.e., they began to favour price stability. Moreover, the results support the notion that poor Americans do not hold government policy responsible for their personal economic plight (Hochschild 1981, Lane 1962).

28
Paper
Unions and Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, 1964-2000
Leighley, Jan
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 05-20-2005
Keywords turnout
voting
elections. unions
Abstract This paper examines the impact of unions on turnout and assesses the consequences of the dramatic decline in union strength since 1964 for the composition of the U.S. electorate. Our analysis relies on individual-level data from 1964 through 2000. We first estimate individual-level models to test for the distinct effects of union membership and union strength on individuals' probabilities of voting and then test whether the effect of individual union membership and overall union strength varies across income levels. We find that unions increase turnout by increasing turnout of union members as well as turnout of non-members. And we find that the effects of union mobilization are approximately equal for the bottom two thirds of the income distribution, but are significantly less for the top third of the income distribution. By simulating what turnout would be were union membership at its 1964 level, we show that the decline in union membership since 1964 has led to a substantial increase in class-bias in the electorate.

29
Paper
Measuring District Level Preferences with Implications for the Analysis of U.S. Elections
Levendusky, Matthew
Pope, Jeremy
Jackman, Simon

Uploaded 07-19-2005
Abstract Studies of American politics frequently rely on measures of a district's long-run partisan or ideological disposition. Numerous proxies have been proposed in the literature, but are hampered by significant practical drawbacks or have unknown measurement properties. We propose a statistical model that marries district level demographic data with electoral returns from 1952 to 2000, to produce a new measure of district level preferences. We also use ourmodel to estimate incumbency advantage, themagnitude of national swings, homestate effects, inter alia, underscoring an important methodological point: good estimates of interesting structural parameters require good measures of unobserved yet structurally relevant phenomena, and vice-versa. Our model also provides a more reasonable way of dealing with uncontested seats. Over time, district-level presidential vote has become an increasingly reliable proxy for district preferences, and by the decade of 1990s is an excellent proxy, which will be reassuring to the many researchers who have relied on presidential vote in this way.

30
Paper
How many people do you know in prison?: using overdispersion in count data to estimate social structure in networks
Zheng, Tian
Salganik, Matt
Gelman, Andrew

Uploaded 10-12-2005
Keywords negative binomial distribution
overdispersion
sampling
social networks
social structure
Abstract Networks--sets of objects connected by relationships--are important in a number of fields. The study of networks has long been central to sociology, where researchers have attempted to understand the causes and consequences of the structure of relationships in large groups of people. Using insight from previous network research, Killworth et al. (1998a,b) and McCarty et al. (2001) developed and evaluated a method for estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations using network data collected from a simple random sample of Americans. In this paper we show how, using a multilevel overdispersed Poisson regression model, these data can also be used to estimate aspects of social structure in the population. Our work goes beyond most previous research on networks by using variation, as well as average responses, as a source of information. We apply our method to the McCarty et al. data and find that Americans vary greatly in their number of acquaintances. Further, Americans show great variation in propensity to form ties to people in some groups (e.g., males in prison, the homeless, and American Indians), but little variation for other groups (e.g., twins, people named Michael or Nicole). We also explore other features of these data and consider ways in which survey data can be used to estimate network structure.

31
Paper
What to do About Missing Values in Time Series Cross-Section Data
King, Gary
Honaker, James

Uploaded 07-14-2006
Keywords Missing data
multiple imputation
EM
IP
EMis
time series
cross-section
Abstract Applications of modern methods for analyzing data with missing values, based primarily on multiple imputation, have in the last half-decade become common in American politics and political behavior. Scholars in these fields have thus increasingly avoided the biases and inefficiencies caused by ad hoc methods like listwise deletion and best guess imputation. However, researchers in much of comparative politics and international relations, and others with similar data, have been unable to do the same because the best available imputation methods work poorly with the time-series cross-section data structures common in these fields. We attempt to rectify this situation. First, we build a multiple imputation model that allows smooth time trends, shifts across cross-sectional units, and correlations over time and space, resulting in far more accurate imputations. Second, we build nonignorable missingness models by enabling analysts to incorporate knowledge from area studies experts via priors on individual missing cell values, rather than on difficult-to-interpret model parameters. Third, since these tasks could not be accomplished within existing imputation algorithms, in that they cannot handle as many variables as needed even in the simpler cross-sectional data for which they were designed, we also develop a new algorithm that substantially expands the range of computationally feasible data types and sizes for which multiple imputation can be used. These developments made it possible for us to implement our methods in new open source software which, unlike all existing multiple imputation packages, virtually never crashes.

32
Paper
Sensitive Questions, Truthful Answers? Modeling the List Experiment Multivariately With LISTIT
Corstange, Daniel

Uploaded 08-03-2006
Keywords list experiment
survey
sensitive questions
listit
Abstract Standard estimation procedures assume that empirical observations are accurate reflections of the true values of the dependent variable, but this assumption is dubious when model self-reported data on sensitive topics. List experiments can nullify incentives for respondents to lie to interviewers, but current data analysis techniques are limited to difference-in-means tests. I present a revised procedure and statistical estimator called listit to model the process multivariately. Monte Carlo simulations and a field test in Lebanon explore the behavior of this estimator.

33
Paper
Should Voters be Encyclopedias? Measuring the Political Sophistication of Survey Respondents
Lawrence, Christopher

Uploaded 12-23-2006
Keywords political sophistication
public opinion
item-response theory models
political knowledge
measurement
NES
DPES
Abstract In this paper, I apply item-response theory models to the problem of measuring the political sophistication of survey respondents in the United States and the Netherlands, discuss the advantages of IRT models over traditional measurement techniques (additive indices, interviewer evaluations) for second-stage analysis, and demonstrate the construct validity of the IRT-based measures. I also demonstrate the relative performance of knowledge items and items constructed from party/candidate relative placement questions on both the NES and DPES.

34
Paper
Non-parametric Mechanisms and Causal Modeling
Glynn, Adam
Quinn, Kevin

Uploaded 07-15-2007
Keywords Neyman-Rubin model
non-parametric structural equations
causal inference
covariate selection
unmeasured confounding
Abstract Political scientists tend to think about causality in terms of mechanisms. In this paper we argue that non-parametric structural equation models are consistent with how many empirical political scientists think about causality and are consistent with the powerful and well-respected Neyman-Rubin Causal Model. Furthermore, using examples we demonstrate that two important practical questions are more easily addressed within the mechanistic framework: What (if any) set or sets of conditioning variables will allow the identification of average causal effects in a regression or matching model? When unmeasured confounding is present, what (if any) adjustment will non-parametrically identify the average causal effect?

35
Paper
An Introduction to the Dataverse Network as an Infrastructure for Data Sharing
King, Gary

Uploaded 09-16-2007
Keywords data sharing
replication
citation
analysis
archiving
preservation
informatics
Abstract We introduce a set of integrated developments in web application software, networking, data citation standards, and statistical methods designed to increase scholarly recognition for data contributions; put some of the universe of data and data sharing practices on firmer ground; and facilitate the public distribution of persistent, authorized, and verifiable data, with powerful and easy-to-use technology, even when the data are confidential or proprietary. Our goal is to solve some of the political and sociological problems of data sharing via technological means, with the result intended to benefit both the scientific community and the sometimes apparently contradictory goals of individual researchers. (More information on this project is available at http://TheData.org.)

36
Paper
A Compositional-Hierarchical Model of Abstention under Compulsory Voting (poster)
Katz, Gabriel

Uploaded 06-18-2008
Keywords compulsory voting
abstention
compositional data
hierarchical modelling
MCMC.
Abstract Invalid voting and electoral absenteeism are two important sources of abstention in compulsory voting systems. Previous studies in this area have not considered the correlation between both variables and ignored the compositional nature of the data, potentially leading to unfeasible results and discarding helpful information from an inferential standpoint. In order to overcome these problems, this paper develops a statistical model that accounts for the compositional and hierarchical structure of the data and addresses robustness concerns raised by the use of small samples that are typical in the literature. The model is applied to analyze invalid voting and electoral absenteeism in Brazilian legislative elections between 1945 and 2006 via MCMC simulations. The results show considerable differences in the determinants of both forms of non-voting; while invalid voting was strongly positively related both to political protest and to the existence of important informational barriers to voting, the influence of these variables on absenteeism is less evident. Comparisons based on posterior simulations indicate that the model developed in this paper fits the dataset better than several alternative modeling approaches and leads to different substantive conclusions regarding the effect of different predictors on the both sources of abstention.

37
Paper
The Trouble with Tobit: A District-Level Sample Selection Model of Voting for Extreme Right Parties in Europe, 1980-2004
Bowyer, Benjamin

Uploaded 07-07-2008
Keywords Tobit
Heckman sample selection
censored data
aggregate data
extreme right parties
Abstract The growing electoral success of extreme right parties (ERPs) in many European countries has sparked academic interest in explaining variation in extreme right success. However, much of the extant research on the electoral success of extreme right parties suffers from at least two types of selection bias. The first involves the selection of cases and occurs when only those national elections that were contested by extreme right parties are included in the cross-national analysis. To address this problem, a growing number of scholars of ERP electoral support employ Tobit models to analyze national-level election results pooled across countries and election years. However, this approach conceals a second source of selection bias: ERPs are extremely selective about which election districts within a country they choose to contest. The correct specification of this process of self-selection requires the recognition of two fundamental points. First, the causal factors that determine whether an extreme right party contests an election are not identical to those that influence its share of the vote if it does appear on the ballot. Second, this decision about when and where to field candidates is one that is observable at the level of the election district. This paper argues that the appropriate way to model is as a Heckman sample selection model estimated at the level of electoral district. I present a preliminary analysis of a dataset that pools district-level election results for eighteen European countries from 1980-2004 (N=12,050), the results of which demonstrate the value of this approach.

38
Paper
Friendships Moderate an Association Between a Dopamine Gene Variant and Political Ideology
Settle, Jaime
Dawes, Christopher
Hatemi, Peter
Christakis, Nicholas
Fowler, James

Uploaded 06-08-2008
Abstract Scholars in many fields have long noted the importance of social context in the development of political ideology. Recent work suggests that political ideology also has a heritable component, but no specific gene variant associated with political ideology has so far been identified. In this article we hypothesize that individuals with a genetic predisposition towards seeking out new experiences will tend to be more liberal, but only if they are embedded in a social context that provides them with multiple points of view. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we test this hypothesis by investigating an association between self-reported political ideology and the 7R variant of the dopamine receptor D4 gene (DRD4), which has previously been associated with novelty-seeking. We find that the number of friendships a person has in adolescence is significantly associated with liberal political ideology among those with DRD4-7R. Among those without the gene variant there is no association. This is the first study ever to elaborate a specific gene-environment interaction that contributes to ideological self-identification, and it highlights the importance of incorporating both nature and nurture into the study of politics.

39
Paper
Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism: A Rejoinder
Clinton, Joshua
Ashworth, Scott
Ramsay, Kris
Meirowitz, Adam

Uploaded 09-25-2008
Keywords Research Design
Terrorism
Abstract In "Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism", we show that Robert Papeâ??s work on suicide terrorism, particularly his 2003 American Political Science Review article, is deeply flawed. In "Methods and Findings in the Study of Suicide Terrorism" (2008), Pape claims that our criticisms of his work are incorrect. The bulk of his response, however, ignores the problem we identify in our comment; instead, he largely summarizes arguments from his later work, arguments that are irrelevant to our basic point. And when he eventually addresses the substance of our critique, Pape simply repeats the error that motivated our original comment.

40
Paper
Agents and Outliers: Testing Organization with Committee Preference Expression
Fortunato, David

Uploaded 06-22-2009
Keywords ideal point estimation
legislative organization
theories of law making
Abstract This paper offers a test of the three dominant schools of thought on the organization of the U.S. House of Representatives by revisiting the old question, Are committees composed of preference outliers? This study takes a new approach to the outlier question by explicitly assuming that the distribution of preferences among committee members varies from that of their colleagues on the floor. By making this assumption I free myself of the obligation of measuring ideology and focus instead on gauging the degree to which the committee crafted agenda allows these preference differences to be expressed --- or the degree to which committees are allowed to high jack the policy making process. Evaluating the latitude that committees take in setting the agenda allows me to assess not only the degree to which committee agents shirk from their principal but also the ability of the three dominant schools of thought on the organization of the U.S. House to predict legislative behavior. By generating jurisdiction specific estimates of agenda manipulation I find strong support for party dominated models of organization with a hierarchical ordering of agency in committee members and evidence for more outlier committees than previous research.

41
Paper
An Ecological Item-Response Model for Multiple Subsets of Respondents with Application to the European Court of Justice
Malecki, Michael

Uploaded 07-30-2009
Keywords ideal point estimation
item response
judicial politics
ecological inference
hierarchical model
Abstract The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has fostered the development of a common European legal order, and in doing so, has asserted itself and its supremacy more, and more successfully, than any other international court. It has maintained features of international courts such as its composition of one judge per member state, while employing other tools of national high courts such as en banc decisions and organization into chambers, that together hide internal dissent and shield the ECJ from direct monitoring or curbing by the member states. The same shield has frustrated efforts to quantify the court's responsiveness to member states, with limited evidence that the ECJ yields to some member-state interest some of the time, but nonetheless has advanced integration beyond national governments' wishes. This equivocation arises at least in part from a failure to include relevant information about the court's composition and organization. In fact, the six-year renewable terms of judges, their previous qualifications and affiliations, and the internal organization into chambers all provide prior information that can and should be incorporated into a more complete model of judicial behavior. I develop an extension of the well-studied item-response model to infer judges' preferences, using the structured ecological data from the cases they heard and relevant prior information about judges and the national governments that appoint them as well as information about cases. I offer new, more rigorous tests for existing theoretical hypotheses about the ECJ's deference to certain actors and preference for integration. The model is applicable to other settings of structured ecological data. Many other national and international courts hear cases in subset chambers, and relevant prior information should be included rather than ignored in models of judicial behavior.

42
Paper
Language Access and Initiative Outcomes: Did the Voting Rights Act Influence Support for Bilingual Education?

Uploaded 12-17-2009
Keywords regression discontinuity design
multilevel modeling
immigrant political incorporation
language access
elections
Voting Rights Act
Abstract This paper investigates one tool designed to enfranchise immigrants: foreign-language election materials. Specifically, it estimates the impact of Spanish-language assistance provided under Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act. Focusing on a California initiative on bilingual education, it tests how Spanish-language materials influenced turnout and election outcomes in Latino neighborhoods. It also considers the possibility of an anti-Spanish backlash in non-Hispanic white neighborhoods. Empirically, the analysis couples a regression discontinuity design with multilevel modeling to isolate the impact of Section 203. The analysis finds that Spanish-language assistance increased turnout and reduced support for ending bilingual education in Latino neighborhoods with many Spanish speakers. It finds hints of backlash among non-Hispanic white precincts, but not with the same certainty. The turnout finding gains additional support from multilevel regression discontinuity analyses of 2004 Latino voter turnout nationwide. For Latino citizens who speak little English, the availability of Spanish ballots increases turnout and influences election outcomes as well.

43
Paper
Formal Tests of Substantive Significance for Linear and Non-Linear Models
Esarey, Justin
Danneman, Nathan

Uploaded 07-16-2010
Keywords statistical decision theory
substantive significance
marginal effects
bayesian
Abstract We propose a critical statistic c^{*} for determining the substantive significance of an empirical result, which we define as the degree to which it justifies a particular decision (such as the decision to accept or reject a theoretical hypothesis), and provide software tools for calculating c^{*} for a wide variety of models. Our procedure, which is built on ideas from Bayesian statistical decision theory, helps researchers improve the objectivity, transparency, and consistency of their assessments of substantive significance.

44
Paper
An Empirical Justification for the Use of Draft Lottery Numbers as a Random Treatment in Political Science Research
Berinsky, Adam

Uploaded 10-18-2010
Abstract In a series of papers in the 1990s, Joshua Angrist and Alan Krueger (1991, 1992) sparked interest in the use of the draft lotteries held with the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s as an instrument for economic outcomes. Over the last few years, there has been growing use of the draft lottery instrument within political science to study political attitudes and behaviors. The lottery is indeed a potentially powerful design because, if conducted correctly, it should provide true randomization for the “treatment” of military service (or behavioral reactions to the threat of such service). However, the first draft lottery conducted in 1969 was not conducted in a truly random manner. Because the Selective Service officials employed faulty procedures, the randomization failed. As a result, those men with birthdates at the end of the year were more likely to have low draft numbers than citizens with birthdates earlier in the year (meaning that they were more likely to be called to service). Previous research suggests that people born at the end of the year are different on key demographic markers than those born earlier in the year. Given the nature of the randomization failure in 1969, the use of draft lottery numbers could confound the effect of the draft with established quarter-of-birth effects. In practice, though, there are small and largely statistically insignificant differences on politically relevant variables between those individuals born early in the year and those born later in the year. Thus, researchers can treat the 1969 draft lottery numbers as if they were assigned at random. However, to account for unmeasured differences based on quarter of birth, I suggest that when using draft numbers as instruments in analyses, researchers should include robustness tests which include measures for the respondents’ quarter or month of birth.

45
Paper
Covariate Balancing Propensity Score
Imai, Kosuke
Ratkovic, Marc

Uploaded 07-13-2012
Keywords causal inference
instrumental variables
inverse propensity score weighting
marginal structural models
observational studies
propensity score matching
randomized experiments
Abstract The propensity score plays a central role in a variety of settings for causal inference. In particular, matching and weighting methods based on the estimated propensity score have become increasingly common in observational studies. Despite their popularity and theoretical appeal, the main practical difficulty of these methods is that the propensity score must be estimated. Researchers have found that slight misspecification of the propensity score model can result in substantial bias of estimated treatment effects. In this paper, we introduce covariate balancing propensity score (CBPS) estimation, which simultaneously optimizes the covariate balance and the prediction of treatment assignment. We exploit the dual characteristics of the propensity score as a covariate balancing score and the conditional probability of treatment assignment and estimate the CBPS within the generalized method of moments or empirical likelihood framework. We find that the CBPS dramatically improves the poor empirical performance of propensity score matching and weighting methods reported in the literature. We also show that the CBPS can be extended to a number of other important settings, including the estimation of generalized propensity score for non-binary treatments, causal inference in longitudinal settings, and the generalization of experimental and instrumental variable estimates to a target population.

46
Paper
The Effects of Federal and State Audits on Municipal Accountability Systems: A Randomized Controlled Trial
De La O, Ana
Martel Garcia, Fernando

Uploaded 08-09-2012
Keywords protocol
randomized controlled trial
audit
accountability
public goods
governance
Abstract Improving accountability in public service provision is one of the most pressing challenges that young democracies face. This research project contributes to an emerging body of literature that examines the role of accountability agencies. Specifically, we provide new evidence about the importance of superior audit institutions, a type of accountability agency. Our evidence is based on a field experiment we conducted in Mexico from March 2011 to July 2012. As part of the national audits program, we randomly assigned municipalities to be audited by federal auditors, by state auditors, and a control group. We estimate the effects of federal and state audits on a range of outcomes including municipal authorities' priorities for public spending, knowledge acquisition, perceptions of their own capacity, and compliance with program rules; we also probe directly perceptions about audit probabilities; and, we estimate the effects of audits on quarterly expenditure data. Finally, we explore how audits interact with institutional and political factors such as the incentives created by one-term limits, the careers of public officials (elected versus non-elected posts) and political clientelism.

47
Paper
The fault in our stars: Measuring and correcting significance bias in Political Science
Esarey, Justin
Wu, Ahra

Uploaded 01-16-2014
Keywords significance
hypothesis test
regression
Abstract Prior research finds that statistically significant results are overrepresented in scientific publications. If significant results are consistently favored in the review process, published results will systematically overstate the magnitude of their findings. Worse yet, the typical two-tailed statistical significance test with \alpha=0.05 does little to prevent the proliferation of false positives in the literature. In this paper, we systematically measure the impact of these two forms of significance bias on published research in quantitative political science. We estimate that 35% or more of published results exaggerate their substantive significance to a meaningful degree, with an average upward bias of 9%-20%. Additionally, 15%-35% of published results are at elevated risk of being false positives. Most importantly, we evaluate a variety of new and existing methodological strategies to correct both forms of significance bias. We conclude that a smaller \alpha threshold combined with conservative Bayesian priors is an effective remedy.

48
Paper
The Etiology of Public Support for the Designated Hitter Rule
Zorn, Christopher
Gill, Jeff

Uploaded 03-21-2004
Keywords baseball
designated hitter
public opinion
ideology
selection model
Abstract Since its introduction in 1973, major league baseball’s designated hitter (DH) rule has been the subject of continuing controversy. Here, we investigate the political and socio–demographic determinants of public opinion towards baseball’s DH rule, using data from a nationwide poll conducted during September, 1997. Our findings suggest that, while both self–proclaimed Democrats and Republicans are more likely to follow baseball than are political independents, it is Democrats, not Republicans, who tend to favor the DH. In addition, older respondents were more likely to oppose the rule, while respondents from the Midwest tended to favor it.

49
Paper
The Varying Role of Voter Information across Democratic Societies
Sekhon, Jasjeet

Uploaded 07-26-2004
Keywords Voter Information
Elections
Causal Inference
Matching
Propensity Score Matching
Robust Estimation
Democratization
Survey Data
Abstract Using new robust matching methods for making causal inferences from survey data, I demonstrate that there are profound differences between how voters behave in mature democracies versus how they behave in new ones. The problems of voter ignorance and inattentiveness are not as serious in mature democracies as many analysts have suggested but are of grave concern in new democracies. Citizens in mature democracies are able to accomplish something that citizens in fledgling democracies are not: inattentive and poorly informed citizens are able to vote like their better informed compatriots and hence need to pay little attention to political events such as election campaigns in order to vote as if they were attentive. The results from the U.S. (which rely on various National Election Studies) and Mexico (2000 Panel Study) are reported in detail. Results from other countries are briefly reported.

50
Paper
Space Is more than Geography
Beck, Nathaniel
Gleditsch, Kristian

Uploaded 07-11-2003
Keywords spatial econometrics
time-series--cross-section data
Abstract Most spatial models use some measure of distance in the spatial weighting matrix. But this is not required: any measure of "similarity" that has the mathematical properties of distance will work well. Here we use spatial methods to allow for dyads which share a common partner to be similar (and a directed dyad and its reverse to be especially similar). While we find evidence of spatial effects in a model with a spatially lagged error, we note that the substantive conseequences of taking this into account are not great. We then use various measures of "community" to assess the impact of similarity in models of democracy and development; the three similarity measures are physical distance, cultural (religious) similarity and trade. In a simple cross-sectional model the spatial lag has large consequences; however, when we move to time-series--cross-section data the impact of the spatial lag is very small. We also argue that one can simplify estimation in many time-series--cross-sectional data sets with temporally independent errors by using the first temporal lag of the spatial lag, which makes for simple estimation.


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