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Below results based on the criteria 'Multinomial probit'
Total number of records returned: 14

1
Paper
A Simulated Maximum Likelihood application to the 1988 Democratic Primary
Lawrence, Eric D.

Uploaded 03-28-1997
Keywords simulated maximum likelihood
multinomial probit
vote choice models
Abstract The multinomial probit model has some appealing advantages over models that do not allow for correlated errors, such as multinomial logit and conditional logit. With a few exceptions, however, multinomial probit models have not been estimated for vote choice models because of the computational costs inherent in evaluating high dimensional integrals. This paper explains one recently developed approach, simulated maximum likelihood combined with the GHK simulator, that makes it feasible to accurately estimate multinomial probit models. The method is demonstrated on a model of the 1988 Democratic Super Tuesday primary.

2
Paper
Anatomy of a Third-Party Victory: Electoral Support for Jesse Ventura in the 1998 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election
Lacy, Dean
Monson, Quin

Uploaded 04-24-2000
Keywords vote-stealing
turnout
third-party
Condorcet winner
multinomial probit
Abstract [not transcribed]

3
Paper
The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Third-Party Candidates in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1968-1996
Lacy, Dean
Burden, Barry C.

Uploaded 03-03-2000
Keywords vote choice
turnout
third parties
multinomial probit
Abstract A multinomial probit model of electoral choice in the 1968, 1980, 1992, and 1996 U.S. presidential elections, estimated using data from the American National Election Studies, reveals similarities and differences in electoral support for George Wallace, John Anderson, and Ross Perot. Estimates from the models are used to simulate the outcomes of the elections in the absence of the third-party candidate and under full turnout. In three of the four elections, the third-party candidates stole more votes from the challengers than from the incumbents. Only in 1996 did the third-party candidate take more votes away from the incumbent than the challenger. None of the four third-party candidacies increased turnout by more than 2.3 percentage points, and Perot's 1996 candidacy had the smallest impact on turnout of all of the third-party candidacies. Under full turnout, the outcome of only one election - 1968 - may have changed. All four third-party candidates increase their vote share under full turnout, and Democratic candidates gain vote share under full turnout in all elections except 1980. The paper also describes a new method for estimating the error variances and covariances in an MNP model.

4
Paper
Mixed Logit Models for Multiparty Elections
Glasgow, Garrett

Uploaded 02-24-2000
Keywords mixed logit
random parameters logit
multinomial probit
IIA
Abstract This is a significantly updated version of my February 24 submission, with several mathematical errors corrected and new information on multinomial probit models and IIA violations. In this paper I introduce the mixed logit (MXL), a flexible discrete choice model based on random utility maximization. Mixed logit is the most flexible discrete choice model available for the study of multiparty and multicandidate elections --- even more flexible than multinomial probit (MNP), the discrete choice model currently favored for the study of elections of this type. Like MNP, MXL does not assume IIA, and can thus estimate realistic substitution patterns between alternatives. In fact, MXL can be specified to estimate the same substitution patterns as any specification of MNP. Further, since the unobserved components of MXL are not constrained to follow a normal distribution, and are not estimated as elements in a covariance matrix, MXL can include any number of random coefficients or error components that can follow any distribution. MXL is no more difficult to estimate than MNP. An empirical example using data from the 1987 British general election demonstrates the utility of MXL in the study of multicandidate and multiparty elections.

5
Paper
Measuring the Relative Impact of Issues and the Economy in Democratic Elections
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan
Willette, Jennifer R.

Uploaded 01-12-1999
Keywords multinomial probit
discrete choice
multiparty elections
multicandidate elections
Canadian elections
Abstract It is generally accepted that issues and economic outcomes influence elections. In this paper we analyze the relative importance of issues and the economy in Canadian elections. We estimate a model of the 1988 and 1993 Canadian elections in which we include voter evaluations of the parties on a variety of issues, and voter evaluations of the national economy and their personal finances. We demonstrate that it is possible to compare the effects of issues and the econocy on election outcomes. And we put this in the context of the impact of issues and elections in several other democracies. We show that even in elections where other factors are dominant, we can still see the impact of economic voting. And we argue that given the tenuous connection between the actions of elected officials and macroeconomic outcomes, this suggests that voters may be giving elected officials undue leeway in their non-economic policy-making functions.

6
Paper
Operationalizing and Testing Spatial Theories of Voting
Quinn, Kevin M.
Martin, Andrew D.

Uploaded 04-15-1998
Keywords spatial voting
factor analysis
multinomial probit
multinomial logit
Bayesian inference
model comparison
Bayes factors
MCMC
Dutch politics
Danish politics
Abstract Spatial models of voting behavior provide the foundation for a substantial number of theoretical results. Nonetheless, empirical work involving the spatial model faces a number of potential difficulties. First, measures of the latent voter and candidate issue positions must be obtained. Second, evaluating the fit of competing statistical models of voter choice is often more complicated than previously realized. In this paper, we discuss precisely these issues. We argue that confirmatory factor analysis applied to mass-level issue preference questions is an attractive means of measuring voter ideal points. We also show how party issue positions can be recovered using a variation of this strategy. We go on to discuss the problems of assessing the fit of competing statistical models (multinomial logit vs. multinomial probit) and competing explanations (those based on spatial theory vs. those derived from other theories of voting such as sociological theories). We demonstrate how the Bayesian perspective not only provides computational advantages in the case of fitting the multinomial probit model, but also how it facilitates both types of comparison mentioned above. Results from the Netherlands and Denmark suggest that even when the computational cost of multinomial probit is disregarded, the decision whether to use multinomial probit (MNP) or multinomial logit (MNL) is not clear-cut.

7
Paper
Economic Performance, Job Insecurity, and Electoral Choice
Lacy, Dean
Mughan, Anthony

Uploaded 09-17-1998
Keywords economic voting
economic insecurity
Perot
turnout
multinomial probit
1996 election
Abstract The mass political economy literature concentrates on egocentric and sociotropic evaluations of short-term economic performance. Scant attention is paid to other economic concerns people may have. In a neo-liberal economic climate characterized by a downsized labor market and the retrenchment of government welfare entitlements, one such widely-publicized concern is job insecurity. We show that job insecurity is a novel form of discontent that is independent of the retrospective evaluations of short-term performance that are the stuff of the mainstream mass political economy literature. At the same time, the political effects of job insecurity are distinctive. In a multinomial probit model of electoral choice in the 1996 U.S. presidential election, job insecurity is associated with support for the third-party candidate, Ross Perot, but, contrary to conventional wisdom, has no implications for turnout. Traditional retrospective evaluations of economic performance explain the major-party vote and abstention.

8
Paper
Correlated Disturbances in Discrete Choice Models:A Comparison of Multinomial Probit Models
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 01-01-1995
Keywords econometrics
logit
multinomial probit
gev
discrete-choice
monte-carlo
Abstract Correlated Disturbances in Discrete Choice Models: A Comparison of Multinomial Probit Models and Logit Models In political science, there are many cases where individuals make discrete choices from more than two alternatives. This paper uses Monte Carlo analysis to examine several questions about one class of discrete choice models --- those involving both alternative-specific and individual-specific variables on the right-hand side --- and demonstrates several findings. First, the use of estimation techniques assuming uncorrelated disturbances across alternatives in discrete choice models can lead to significantly biased parameter estimates. This point is tempered by the observation that probability estimates based on the full choice set generated from such estimates are not likely to be biased enough to lead to incorrect inferences. However, attempts to infer the impact of altering the choice set -- such as by removing one of the alternatives -- will be less successful. Second, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model is extremely unreliable when the pattern of correlation among the disturbances is not as restricted as the GEV model assumes. GEV estimates may suggest grouping among the choices that is in fact not present in the data. Third, in samples the size of many typical political science applications -- 1000 observations -- Multinomial Probit (MNP) is capable of recovering precise estimates of the parameters of the systemic component of the model, though MNP is not likely to generate precise estimates of the relationship among the disturbances in samples of this size. Paradoxically, MNP's primary benefit is its ability to uncover relationships among alternatives and to correctly estimate the affect of removing an alternative from the choice set. Thus this paper suggests the increased use of MNP by political scientists examining discrete choice problems when the central question of interest is the effect of removing an alternative from the choice set. We demonstrate that for other questions, models positing independent disturbances may be `close enough.'

9
Paper
Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 01-01-1995
Keywords Elections
Campaigns
Perot
Multinomial Probit
Economic Voting
Angry Voters
Abstract Theory: Theories of presidential elections (economic voting and spatial issue and ideology models), combined with the popular explanation of "angry voting", are used to account for voter choice in the 1992 Presidential Election. Hypotheses: Voter choice in this three-candidate race is a function of economic perceptions, issue and ideological positions of voters and candidates, or ``voter anger.'' Methods: Multinomial probit analysis of 1992 National Election Studies data including individual-specific and alternative-specific variables. Simulations based on counterfactual scenarios of ideological positions of the candidates and of voter perceptions of the economy. Results: The economy was the dominant factor in accounting for voter decisions in 1992, and Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. While issues (mainly abortion) and ideology did play some role, Clinton was not perceived by the electorate as a ``New Democrat.'' We find little support for the hypothesis of ``angry voting.'' Last, Perot took more votes from Bush than from Clinton.

10
Paper
Issues, Economics and the Dynamics of Multi-Party Elections: The British 1987 General Election
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan
Bowler, Shaun

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords Elections
Multinomial Probit
Economic Voting
Issue Voting
Spatial Model
Multicandidate Elections
British Elections
Abstract This paper offers a model of three-party elections which allows voters to combine retrospective economic evaluations with considerations of the positions of the parties in the issue-space as well as the issue-preferences of the voters. We describe a model of British elections which allows voters to consider simultaneously all three parties, rather than limiting voters to choices among pairs of parties as is usually done. Using this model we show that both policy issues and the state of the national economy matter in British elections. We also show how voters framed their decisions. Voters first made a retrospective evaluation of the Conservative party based on economic performance; and those voters that rejected the Conservative party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations of the effects of issues -- we move the parties in the issue space and re-estimate vote-shares -- and the economy -- we hypothesize an alternative distribution of views of the economy for voters -- we show that Labour has virtually no chance to win with the Alliance as a viable alternative. Even if the Alliance (or the Liberal Democrats) disappears, Labour will need to significantly moderate its policy positions to have a chance of competing with the Conservative party. We argue that the methodological technique we employ, multinomial probit, is a superior mechanism for studying three-party elections as it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods.

11
Paper
When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multi-PartyElections
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 00-00-0000
Keywords elections
parties
probit
logit
multinomial logit
model-specification
spatial model
multinomial probit
discrete-choice
Abstract Theory: The spatial model of elections can better be represented by using conditional logit than by multinomial logit. The spatial model, and random utility models in general, suffer from a failure to adequately consider the substitutability of candidates sharing similar or identical issue positions. Hypotheses: Multinomial logit is not much better than successive applications of binomial logit. Conditional logit allows for considering more interesting political questions than does multinomial logit. The spatial model may not correspond to voter decision-making in multiple-candidate settings. Multinomial probit allows for a relaxation of the IIA condition and this should improve estimates of the effect of adding or removing parties. Methods: Comparisons of binomial logit, multinomial logit, conditional logit, and multinomial probit on simulated data and survey data from a three-party election. Results: Multinomial logit offers almost no benefits over binomial logit. Conditional logit is capable of examining movements by parties, whereas multinomial logit is not. Multinomial probit performs better than conditional logit when considering the effects of altering the set of choices available to voters.

12
Paper
Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 08-21-1997
Keywords elections
issues
ideology
economic voting
economy
multinomial probit
Abstract In this paper we examine three sets of explanations for the outcome of the 1996 presidential election campaign. First, we look at the effects of voter perceptions of the national economy on voter support for Clinton. Second we look at the effects of candidate and voter positions on a number of issues and on ideology. Last, we seek to understand whether other issues --- social issues such as abortion as well as issues revolving around entitlements and taxation --- played significant roles in this election. Thus this work extends the work of Alvarez and Nagler (1995), and enriches it with analysis of a more comprehensive set of issues considered. In the end, we are able to pull together each of these different sets of explanations into a consistent analysis of the 1996 presidential election which shows why Clinton won this race, but which also helps us understand why it was that both Dole and Perot fell so far from electoral victory.

13
Paper
The Consequences of Majority-Minority Districts for Representation: Evidence of Partisan Mobilization, Countermobilization and Demobilization
Brandt, Patrick T.
Bailey, Michael

Uploaded 08-21-1997
Keywords Multinomial probit
panel data methods
simulated maximum likelihood
probability simulation
redistricting
Abstract Few analyses of the effects of race-based congressional redistricting have used survey data to analyze the implications of redistricting. This type of micro-level data can add significant intuition to aggregate data analysis. This paper looks at whether voters respond to redistricting by mobilizing, demobilizing, or countermobilizing using panel data from the 1990-1992 National Election Study. A 2-period vote choice model is estimated using a multiperiod multinomial probit model, and controlling for the effects of redistricting. Results show that the presence of black Democratic candidates in majority-minority districts after redistricting reduces turnout by white voters for the Democratic candidates.

14
Paper
A New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Systems
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 04-04-1997
Keywords multinomial probit
strategic voting
Abstract Whether voters vote strategically, using their vote to best further their interests, or vote sincerely, voting for their first choice among the alternatives, is a question of longstanding interest. We offer two innovations in searching for the answer to this question. First, we begin with a more consistent model of sincere voting in multiparty democratic systems than has been presented in the literature to date. Second, we incorporate new operationalizations of the objective potential for strategic behavior than have been used in the past. We offer a test of strategic voting in the 1987 British General Election based on the varience in strategic setting across constituencies in Britain. Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. This is one of many papers by the authors; the ordering of names reflects alphabetic convention. We thank Jonathan Katz and Guy Whitten for supplying helpful data for this project. We also thank Gary Cox and Jonathan Katz for discussions of this subject. Last, we thank Shaun Bowler for his work with us on a related project.


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