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Below results based on the criteria 'Ideology'
Total number of records returned: 23

1
Paper
A Mixed-Membership Approach to the Assessment of Political Ideology from Survey Responses
Gross, Justin
Manrique-Vallier, Daniel

Uploaded 07-13-2012
Keywords latent structure model
grade-of-membership
mixed-membership
latent variables
measurement
ideology
beliefs
core values
attitudes
discrete factor analysis
survey response
Abstract We employ mixed-membership (or grade-of-membership) techniques--of growing popularity in medical diagnostics, psychology, genetics, and machine learning--in order to identify prototypical profiles of survey respondents based on their answers to questions aimed at uncovering their basic orientations or ideological predispositions. In contrast with factor analytic techniques and IRT approaches, we treat both manifest and latent variables as categorical. A mixed membership model may be thought of as a generalization of latent class modeling, in which individuals act as members of more than one class. This notion is well-aligned with earlier theoretical work of Zaller, Feldman, Stimson, and others, who at times envision respondents to be internally complex, answering survey questions probabilistically according to what Zaller calls varying ``considerations.'' Reanalyzing data in this way, we develop new insights into the sorts of constraints that may structure mass belief systems.

2
Paper
The Etiology of Public Support for the Designated Hitter Rule
Zorn, Christopher
Gill, Jeff

Uploaded 03-21-2004
Keywords baseball
designated hitter
public opinion
ideology
selection model
Abstract Since its introduction in 1973, major league baseball’s designated hitter (DH) rule has been the subject of continuing controversy. Here, we investigate the political and socio–demographic determinants of public opinion towards baseball’s DH rule, using data from a nationwide poll conducted during September, 1997. Our findings suggest that, while both self–proclaimed Democrats and Republicans are more likely to follow baseball than are political independents, it is Democrats, not Republicans, who tend to favor the DH. In addition, older respondents were more likely to oppose the rule, while respondents from the Midwest tended to favor it.

3
Paper
An Integrated Perspective on Party Platforms and Electoral Choice
Elff, Martin

Uploaded 08-19-2002
Keywords electoral behavior
party platforms
party manifestos
ideology
social cleavages
class voting
religious voting
comparative politics
principal curves
generalized additive models
dimensional analysis
discrete choice
Abstract There are several perspectives on voting behavior that usually constitute separate strands of research: the impact of social background on vote choice, the relation between policy positions of parties and policy preferences of voters, and the effect of party platforms on the electoral success of parties. Although they all apply to the same entities, that is, to voters and parties, these different perspectives seem to have divergent implications. Thus we are in need of a way to reconcile these perspectives. The empirical results presented in this paper suggest a way what such a reconciliation should look like. They could be summarized as follows: In party platforms, several ideological dimensions can be distinguished that are connected with different cleavages in the Lispet-Rokkan sense. Second, it is shown that individuals from different social groups differ in the way they evaluate party platforms and choose among parties. Third, the way these individuals evaluate party platforms conforms to spatial notions of voting. Fourth, a general pattern of platform evaluation established on the base of pooled data of several countries accounts to a large degree for differences between levels of religious voting in these countries.

4
Paper
Conservative Vote Probabilities: An Easier Method for the Analysis of Roll Call Data
Fowler, Anthony
Hall, Andrew B.

Uploaded 08-08-2012
Keywords Roll Call
Ideology
Congress
Supreme Court
State Legislatures
Non-parametric
Abstract We propose a new roll-call scaling method based on OLS which is easier to implement and understand than previous methods and also produces directly interpretable estimates. This measure, Conservative Vote Probability (CVP), indicates the probability that an individual legislator votes "conservatively" relative to the median legislator. CVP is a flexible non-parametric statistical technique that requires no complicated assumptions but still produces legislator scalings that correlate with previous roll call methods at extremely high levels. In this paper we introduce the methodology behind CVP and off er several substantive examples to demonstrate its e efficacy as an easier, more accessible alternative to previous roll call methods.

5
Paper
Stability and Change in State Electorates, Carter through Clinton
Erikson, Robert S.
Wright, Gerald C.
McIver, John P.
Holian, David B.

Uploaded 04-25-2000
Keywords partisanship
political ideology
public opinion
state electorates
Abstract This paper extends the time series and advances the argument presented in _Statehouse Democracy_, which provided a public opinion basis for the study of state politics. The analysis covers the dynamics of partisanship and ideology in state electorates from 1977 through 1999. Incorporating the Bush and Clinton years allows for a number of conclusions. In the aggregate, state partisanship changed over the course of the last two presidential administrations, but state ideology did not. However, this change was not uniform across the country, but differed by region and resulted in higher levels of polarization between party and ideological identifications. Finally, consistent with the findings in _Statehouse Democracy_, state partisanship and

6
Paper
Flexible Prior Specifications for Factor Analytic Models with an Application to the Measurement of American Political Ideology
Quinn, Kevin M.

Uploaded 04-20-2000
Keywords factor analysis
intrinsic autoregression
hierarchical modeling
Bayesian inference
political ideology
Abstract Factor analytic measurement models are widely used in the social sciences to measure latent variables and functions thereof. Examples include the measurement of: political preferences, liberal democracy, latent determinants of exchange rates, and latent factors in arbitrage pricing theory models and the corresponding pricing deviations. Oftentimes, the results of these measurement models are sensitive to distributional assumptions that are made regarding the latent factors. In this paper I demonstrate how prior distributions commonly used in image processing and spatial statistics provide a flexible means to model dependencies among the latent factor scores that cannot be easily captured with standard prior distributions that treat the factor scores as (conditionally) exchangeable. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to fit the resulting models. These modeling techniques are illustrated with a simulated data example and an analysis of American political attitudes drawn from the 1996 American National Election Study.

7
Paper
Ideology and U.S. Senate Candidates
Burden, Barry C.
Kenny, Christopher B.

Uploaded 04-19-2000
Keywords ideology
measurement
elite surveys
Abstract This paper reports on a pilot study for what will become the Candidate Ideology Survey (CIS). Beginning in 2000, the CIS will survey all major-party House and Senate candidates, asking them to locate themselves on the left-right ideological spectrum. Such an approach improves on existing ideology measures such those based on roll call votes because it puts both incumbents and challengers on a common scale. Existing studies of congressional elections that include only the ideology of the incumbent in vote models are likely underestimating the importance of ideology generally, the positions of challengers are useful if not necessary. The paper presents findings from a preliminary survey of senators and Senate challengers in 1998. It explains the ususual elite mail survey methodology used in terms of response rate and representativeness of the sample. It also examines the validity of the data in terms of partisan and regional differences and relationships with existing ideological measures. Among other substance results, we find that the ideological "fit" of incumbents with constituents is much better than the "fit" of challengers with constituents. By improving on this design and adding the House in the 2000 CIS wave, we hope to generate data that will be of great use to researchers who study congressional elections.

8
Paper
A Statistical Assessment of The Spatial Model of Ideology
Ghobarah, Hazen

Uploaded 07-20-1998
Keywords spatial theory
macroµ-stability
ideology
maximum likelihood
multi-dimensional scaling
Abstract The spatial model of ideology (Hinich and Munger, 1994) specifies a formal framework for linking positions of the electorate, the parties, and the candidates on a plethora of issues to positions on a few ideological dimensions- perhaps just one or two dimensions. While extant tests of this model have relied on cross-sectional survey data, this study utilizes a panel. The panel format allows a direct examination of the stability, and indeed the reality, of the parameters and the cognitive processes that are posited by the formal model. Given the available variables in the panel, I operationalize one model for party competition and another for presidential candidates. The results of both are supportive of the linkage model. The statistical methodology used in this study is no more complex than the model requires; it includes maximum likelihood factor analysis and a customized multi-dimensional scaling procedure.

9
Paper
Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.
De Boef, Suzanna

Uploaded 08-22-1996
Keywords partisanship
ideology
Granger causality
Haugh-Pierce tests
fractional integration
Abstract The relationship between partisan and ideological movements in the electorate has largely gone uninvestigated (but see Box-Steffensmeier, Knight, and Sigelman 1996) We investigate the relationship between macropartisanship and macroideology over time by subgroups within the populations. We focus on particular on groups that are more or less politically sophisticated. We use CBS and New York Times survey data on partisanship and ideology. Our evidence suggests that there is a relationship between ideology and partisanship and that the more politically sophisticated the respondent, the more closely related are the series over time. Adults that answer both questions, as well as higher educated respondents, more often get ideology and partisanship "right." That is, they claim to be Democrats and liberals or Republicans and conservatives. We can reject independence more clearly as the level of education goes up as well. In addition to the increased level of political sophistication that characterizes those for whom the series are linked, these adults are more likely by wide margins, to have claimed to have voted than less sophisticated adults. Thus, any linkage has political implications. The incentives for politicans to link popular ideological sentiment with partisanship are strong. The people who put them in office (or kick them out) are the same folks who connect ideology and partisanship and who pay attention to politics.

10
Paper
Pauline, the Mainstream, and Political Elites: the place of race in Australian political ideology
Jackman, Simon

Uploaded 08-25-1997
Keywords public opinion
political ideology
political elites
race
immigration
Australian politics
factor analysis
ideological locations
density estimation
plotting highest density regions
Abstract An often heard claim in the current ``race debate'' is that Australia's major political parties are out of touch with ``mainstream'' Australia on issues related to race. Parallel surveys of the electorate and candidates in the 1996 Federal election allow this claim to be tested, with items tapping general ideological dispositions, but including questions about Aboriginal Australians, immigration, and links with Asia. I make three critical findings: egin{itemize} item the electorate holds quite conservative opinions on these issues relative to the candidates, and is quite distant from ALP candidates in particular; item attitudes on racial issues are a powerful component of the electorate's otherwise relatively loosely organized political ideology, so much so that any categorisation of Australian political ideology ignoring race must be considered incomplete; item racial attitudes cut across other components of the electorate's ideology, placing all the parties under internal ideological strains, but the ALP appears particularly vulnerable on this score. end{itemize} While the data show the Coalition to be the net beneficiary of the ideological tensions posed by race, the formation of Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has exposed the Coalition's vulnerability to race as a cross-cutting political issue. Racial issues thus have many characteristics of a realigning dimension in Australian politics.

11
Paper
Evaluating Measures of Ideology
Bishin, Benjamin G.
King, Gary
Zeng, Langche

Uploaded 08-24-1997
Keywords FILTER
ADA
NOMINATE
ideology
Abstract A vigorous debate has arisen over the metric used to measure ideology (Jackson and Kingdon 1992, Poole and Rosenthal 1985, Snyder 1991, Krehbiel 1993). Ideology is difficult to measure because legislator's statements may be politically motivated and insincere. This paper evaluates the accuracy of NOMINATE and ADA scores by comparing them to an independent measure, based on background characteristics, developed herein. By Forecasting the Ideology of Legislators Through Elite Response (FILTER), this measure avoids the problems inherent in use of the roll call vote metric. In addition, the FILTER methodology is generalizable to studies of other deliberative bodies. The results show that FILTER scores are highly correlated with NOMINATE and ADA scores.

12
Paper
Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election
Alvarez, R. Michael
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 08-21-1997
Keywords elections
issues
ideology
economic voting
economy
multinomial probit
Abstract In this paper we examine three sets of explanations for the outcome of the 1996 presidential election campaign. First, we look at the effects of voter perceptions of the national economy on voter support for Clinton. Second we look at the effects of candidate and voter positions on a number of issues and on ideology. Last, we seek to understand whether other issues --- social issues such as abortion as well as issues revolving around entitlements and taxation --- played significant roles in this election. Thus this work extends the work of Alvarez and Nagler (1995), and enriches it with analysis of a more comprehensive set of issues considered. In the end, we are able to pull together each of these different sets of explanations into a consistent analysis of the 1996 presidential election which shows why Clinton won this race, but which also helps us understand why it was that both Dole and Perot fell so far from electoral victory.

13
Paper
Strange Bedfellows or the Usual Suspects? Spatial Models of Ideology and Interest Group Coalitions
Almeida, Richard

Uploaded 04-01-2005
Keywords Interest groups
coalitions
spatial theory
poisson regression
ideology
Abstract Entering into coalitions has become a standard tactic for interest groups trying to maximize success while minimizing cost. The strategic conditions underlying decisions to form or join coalitions are beginning to be explored in the political science literature, yet very little is known about the process and criteria through which interest groups select coalition partners. In this paper, I explore the partner selection process by applying spatial theories of ideology and coalition formation to interest group participation on amicus curiae briefs. Previous work demonstrates that the lobbying efforts of groups can be used to generate a general measure of ideology for any group. These captured ideology scores are used in statistical models of interest group coalition partner selection on amicus curiae briefs from 1954-1985. This research demonstrates that the ideology scores captured for each group are powerful predictors of interest group coalition partner selection, even when controls for resources, group type, and other potential predictors are included.

14
Paper
Using Item Response Theory to Estimate Ideology in Congress
Kropko, Jonathan

Uploaded 06-28-2008
Keywords Item Response Theory
Congress
Ideology
Abstract I use item response theory (IRT) to estimate latent ideology from selected roll-call votes in the first session of the 110th House of Representatives. Votes are selected if they are divisive, unique, but not wholly explained by party loyalties. The method is similar to the one employed by Clinton et al (2004), but does not assume a spatial structure of voting. The results demonstrate that (1) although Democrats hold a majority of the seats in the 110th House, a majority of the members have conservative ideologies, (2) the Republican party leadership is much more conservative than the Democratic party leadership is liberal, and (3) that the House is far less ideologically polarized than DW-Nominate scores would indicate.

15
Paper
Giving Order to Districts: Estimating Voter Distributions with National Election Returns
Kernell, Georgia

Uploaded 07-07-2008
Keywords district ideology
voter distribution
election returns
Abstract Correctly measuring district preferences is crucial for empirical research on legislative responsiveness and voting behavior. This article argues that the common practice of using presidential vote shares to measure congressional district ideology systematically produces incorrect estimates. I propose an alternative method that employs multiple election returns to estimate voters' ideological distributions within districts. I develop two estimation procedures -- a least squared error model and a Bayesian model -- and test each with simulations and empirical applications. The models are shown to outperform vote shares, and they are validated with direct measures of voter ideology and out of sample election predictions. Beyond estimating district ideology, these models provide valuable information on constituency heterogeneity, an important but understudied quality for understanding representatives' strategic behavior.

16
Poster
Testing Theoretical Structures of Mass Preferences
Jackson, Natalie

Uploaded 08-01-2011
Keywords public opinion
path analysis
multidimensional scaling
ideology
mass preferences
Abstract This project applies path analysis and multidimensional scaling models to complex, interrelated theoretical concepts to investigate the causal origins of policy preferences in the mass public. Ideology, in the sense of the liberal-conservative continuum, has often been used to explain policy preferences in the mass public with considerable success, but the causal origins of ideology are unclear due to the complexity of the concept. In this project, a theoretical model is developed that posits that ideology is created from, and therefore caused by, culture, as defined by and operationalized in the Cultural Theory framework developed by Douglas and Wildavsky (1982). However, the theoretical relationship between culture and ideology is different for those who consider themselves "liberal" or "conservative" (the ideologues) than it is for those who consider themselves "moderate" or non-ideologues. Ideologues will demonstrate a strong direct relationship between ideology and preferences, whereas moderates' preferences will be more directly related to their culture than ideology. Additionally, the concepts of culture and ideology should be more spatially similar for moderates than for ideologues since moderates are less likely to make strong distinctions between political views and their overall worldviews. This poster applies path analysis to determine which direct and indirect relationships are strongest between culture, ideology, and preferences. Multidimensional scaling analysis is then used to examine the spatial configuration of the constructs for moderates and ideologues.

17
Poster
Comparing Opinions and Preferences across States and Regions: The Fallacy of using Ideological Responses
Cormack, Lindsey
Nagler, Jonathan

Uploaded 07-20-2012
Keywords ideology
polarization
public opinion
Abstract We are interested in differences in ideology and preferences on policies across red and blue states, and across people who say they are liberals versus conservatives. We make several points about measurement of ideology and issue preferences, all in the context of `polarization'. First, the use of ideology for measuring polarization is quite dangerous as the typical ideology question has no fixed scale -- allowing respondents to interpret it quite differently across regions or groups. Second, ideology also has a potential dimensionality problem: it is fundamentally a projection of many dimensions (or issues) onto one dimension, thus allowing respondents to weight lower level dimensions differently across regions or groups. Taken together, this suggests that an electorate may be polarized on some issues, but not on other issues. This could be because the issues exist on distinct dimensions. Or, we could find issues that lie on the same dimensions, but some are simply more discriminating than others. In such cases, `polarization' would exist on the more discriminating issue, but not on the less-discriminating issue. Thus polarization, in the absence of a clear definition, will likely to continue to exist in the eye of the beholder.

18
Poster
Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together. Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data
Barberá, Pablo

Uploaded 07-23-2013
Keywords ideology
polarization
ideal points
social networks
twitter
Abstract Parties, candidates, and voters are becoming increasingly engaged in political conversations through the micro-blogging platform Twitter. In this paper I show that the structure of the social networks in which they are embedded has the potential to become a source of information about policy positions. Under the assumption that social networks are homophilic (McPherson et al., 2001), this is, the propensity of users to cluster along partisan lines, I develop a Bayesian Spatial Following model that scales Twitter users along a common ideological dimension based on who they follow. I apply this network-based method to estimate ideal points for Twitter users in the US, the UK, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands. The resulting positions of the party accounts on Twitter are highly correlated with offline measures based on their voting records and their manifestos. Similarly, this method is able to successfully classify individuals who state their political orientation publicly, and a sample of users from the state of Ohio whose Twitter accounts are matched with their voter registration history. To illustrate the potential contribution of these estimates, I examine the extent to which online behavior is polarized along ideological lines. Using the 2012 US presidential election campaign as a case study, I find that public exchanges on Twitter take place predominantly among users with similar viewpoints.

19
Poster
Using Optimal Classification to Analyze Mass Political Preferences
Hare, Christopher

Uploaded 07-25-2013
Keywords Optimal Classification
ideal point estimation
mass ideology
spatial voting
Abstract I demonstrate use of Poole's (2000, 2005) Optimal Classification (OC) nonparametric unfolding method to scale mass political preferences. Because it is nonparametric, OC does not impose a particular functional form on respondents' utility functions or the error term. alpha-NOMINATE analysis shows that the assumption of quadratic utility is especially problematic. The assumption that errors are iid is also almost certainly likely to be violated since some survey respondents (e.g., those with low levels of political knowledge) are more likely to commit spatial voting errors. I discuss an approach for extending the OC method to handle ordinal choices and compare the results from OC and ordinal IRT.

20
Poster
Estimating multidimensional salience in a spatial model of ideology
Foley, Peter

Uploaded 08-05-2013
Keywords IRT
salience
ideal point
ideology
heterogeneity
bayesian
Abstract Spatial ideology is an extremely attractive framework for theoretical models of party behavior, but the tools for modeling voter ideology lag far behind theory and behind the tools for legislative and judicial decisions. I extend a standard spatial voting model based on item-response theory to use ordinal responses and hierarchical predictors that are necessary for analyzing spatial ideology among voters. I then extend the model further to allow for variations in salience, again with hierarchical predictors, so people and groups vary in both their ideological positions and in which dimensions they actually use when answering survey questions.

21
Poster
Analyzing the Effects of Redistricting on Ideology in the Post-Wesberry Era
Williamson, Ryan

Uploaded 07-16-2014
Keywords causal inference
redistricting
ideology
Abstract During the late 19th century, research has shown that existing norms and rules governing the redistricting process gave state legislatures enormous discretion in the timing and manner in which they redrew congressional boundaries. However, the Supreme Court rulings in Baker v. Carr and Wesberry v. Sanders altered these redistricting rules. Also, the emergence of careerism and seniority privileges created a new incentive to be considered when creating district lines. As such, a process that once fostered great competition and turnover now centers on maintaining partisan control within states. Here, I seek to understand how representatives respond to changes in their districts in the modern era. Utilizing a natural experiment, I find that redistricting leads members of the House to move towards the extreme ends of the ideological spectrum. Additionally, I find that legislative-drawn plans also result in members having more extreme ideological scores, as opposed to districts created by an extra-legislative body.

22
Poster
Spending Swept Under the Rug: Inferring Political Ideology of Ostensibly Non-partisan Organizations
Dimmery, Drew
Peterson, Andrew

Uploaded 07-23-2014
Keywords non profits
scaling
tax forms
ideology
Abstract In 2012, Donor's Trust, a tax-exempt organization emphasizing its libertarian, free-market oriented political ideology, and the Planned Parenthood Action Fund each spent around three times as much as the largest Political Action Committee did. Organizations regulated under section 501 of the US Code spend huge amounts of money in an effort to promote their political opinions (which run the gamut of the ideological spectrum from Citizens United to the Sierra Club). In this work, we utilize a novel set of data based on IRS documents (990 tax forms) filed by every tax-exempt organization in the United States since 2001. We use machine coding techniques to extract semantic content from these documents and then build the network of inter-organizational grants for a large sample of organizations in 2012. We present and analyze the ideology of these organizations using an array of scaling techniques, focusing on the recipients of grants.

23
Poster
Economic Voting: Causal Mediation of Retrospective Evaluations
Becher, Michael
Donnelly, Michael

Uploaded 08-15-2010
Keywords Economic Voting
Causal Mediation
Mediation
Incumbency
Retrospective Evaluations
Ideology
Abstract In this paper, we show that an increase in economic growth has a positive effect on the share of voters who support the party of the chief executive and that it does this through retrospective evaluations of the economy. In order to do this, we expand on the results of Duch and Stevenson (2005, 2008). Using causal mediation analysis, we show that an increase in economic growth leads to an increase in the number of survey respondents whose retrospective evaluations of the economy are positive. This, in turn, leads to an increase in the number of voters who support the party of the chief executive. A similar result holds using annual unemployment change as the treatment. In both cases, the effect is weaker when the chief executive is a member of a coalition. The evidence for existence of mediation effects is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of a number of control variables, including an interaction between individual ideology and government ideology.


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