
1 
Paper

Spike and Slab Prior Distributions for Simultaneous Bayesian Hypothesis Testing, Model Selection, and Prediction, of Nonlinear Outcomes
Pang, Xun
Gill, Jeff

Uploaded 
07132009

Keywords 
Spike and Slab Prior Hypothesis Testing Bayesian Model Selection Bayesian Model Averaging Adaptive Rejection Sampling Generalized Linear Model

Abstract 
A small body of literature has used the spike and slab prior specification for model selection with strictly linear outcomes. In this setup a twocomponent mixture distribution is stipulated for coefficients of interest with one part centered at zero with very high precision (the spike) and the other as a distribution diffusely centered at the research hypothesis (the slab). With the selective shrinkage, this setup incorporates the zero coefficient contingency directly into the modeling process to produce posterior probabilities for hypothesized outcomes. We extend the model to qualitative responses by designing a hierarchy of forms over both the parameter and model spaces to achieve variable selection, model averaging, and individual coefficient hypothesis testing. To overcome the technical challenges in estimating the marginal posterior distributions possibly with a dramatic ratio of density heights of the spike to the slab, we develop a hybrid Gibbs sampling algorithm using an adaptive rejection approach for various discrete outcome models, including dichotomous, polychotomous, and count responses. The performance of the models and methods are assessed with both Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications in political science. 

5 
Paper

A default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models
Gelman, Andrew
Jakulin, Aleks
Pittau, Maria Grazia
Su, YuSung

Uploaded 
08032007

Keywords 
Bayesian inference generalized linear model least squares hierarchical model linear regression logistic regression multilevel model noninformative prior distribution

Abstract 
We propose a new prior distribution for classical (nonhierarchical) logistic regression models, constructed by first scaling all nonbinary variables to have mean 0 and standard deviation 0.5, and then placing independent Student$t$ prior distributions on the coefficients. As a default choice, we recommend the Cauchy distribution with center 0 and scale 2.5, which in the simplest setting is a longertailed version of the distribution attained by assuming onehalf additional success and onehalf additional failure in a logistic regression. We implement a procedure to fit generalized linear models in R with this prior distribution by incorporating an approximate EM algorithm into the usual iteratively weighted least squares. We illustrate with several examples, including a series of logistic regressions predicting voting preferences, an imputation model for a public health data set, and a hierarchical logistic regression in epidemiology.
We recommend this default prior distribution for routine applied use. It has the advantage of always giving answers, even when there is complete separation in logistic regression (a common problem, even when the sample size is large and the number of predictors is small) and also automatically applying more shrinkage to higherorder interactions. This can be useful in routine data analysis as well as in automated procedures such as chained equations for missingdata imputation. 

