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WORKING PAPER
Generic Tests for a Nonlinear Model of Congressional Campaign Dynamics
Mebane, Walter R.Abstract I develop a statistical model based on a generic third-order Taylor series approximation for differential equation systems that exhibit Hopf bifurcation in order to use district-level cross-sectional data to test a nonlinear dynamic formal model of campaign contributions, district service and voting during and after a U.S. House election. The statistical model represents the key nonlinearities of the formal model's Cournot-Nash equilibrium in a highly robust fashion. For data from the years 1984--85 and 1986--87, non-nested hypothesis tests (implemented using a calibrated, parametric bootstrap method) show that under assumptions of multivariate normality, the nonlinear model is vastly superior to the generic linear alternative defined by the sample mean vector and covariance matrix. Keywords bootstrap campaigns Congress Cox tests differential equations elections Hopf bifurcation non-nested hypothesis tests nonlinear models File
Uploaded 08-25-1996 Document ID Number 375 |
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