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WORKING PAPER
Racing Horses: Constructing and Evaluating Forecasts in Political Science
Brandt, PatrickFreeman, John R. Schrodt, Philip Abstract We review methods for forecast evaluations and how they can be used in political sciences. We examine how forecast densities are more useful summaries of forecasted variables than point metrics. We also cover how continuous rank probability scores, probability integral transforms, and verification rank histograms can be used to calibrate and evaluate forecast performance. Finally, we present two illustrations, one a simulation and the other a comparison of forecasting models for the China-Taiwan (cross-straits) conflict. Keywords forecast density forecasting model training political conflict probability integral transform scoring rules verification rank histogram File
Uploaded 07-27-2011 Document ID Number 1285 |
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