Conference program

Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday

WEDNESDAY 22 July 2009
6:00 pm	1104 Chapel	Society for Political Methodology Women’s Group Dinner Scoozzi Trattoria & Wine Bar

THURSDAY 23 July 2009
8:00 – 12:00	WLH	Welcome Packets & Registration
8:30 – 9:00	WLH	Continental Breakfast
9:00 – 9:40	WLH 201	Welcome
9:40 – 10:40	WLH 201	Session 1 – Plenary Paper: “Election Auditing: How Much is Enough?” Philip Stark (UC Berkeley, Statistics)
10:40 – 10:50	WLH	Break
10:50 – 12:20	WLH 201	Session 2 – Plenary Panel: “David Freedman’s Dialogue with the Social Sciences” Panel Chair: Jasjeet Sekhon (UC Berkeley) Panelists: Chris Achen (Princeton), Don Green (Yale; slides), Thad Dunning (Yale), Philip Stark (UC Berkeley, Statistics)
12:20 – 2:00	TD College	Lunch
2:00 – 3:20		Session 3 – Split sessions
	WLH 201	3a. Paper: “A Reasoned Basis for Inference: Randomization and Design Justifying Estimation and Testing” Jake Bowers (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign) & Costas Panagopoulos (Fordham) Discussant: Chris Achen (Princeton)
	WLH 119	3b. Paper: “A Comparison of the Small-Sample Properties of Several Estimators for Spatial-Lag Poisson-Models” Jude Hays (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign) & Robert Franzese (University of Michigan) Discussant: Gregory Wawro (Columbia University)
	WLH 208	3c. Paper: “Getting Rich(er) in Office? Corruption and Wealth Accumulation in Congress” Gabriel Lenz (MIT) & Kevin Lim (MIT) Discussant: Robert Erikson (Columbia)
3:20 – 3:30	WLH	Break
3:30– 5:00	SSS #114	Session 4 –  Plenary Keynote address: “Instrumental Variables in Action: Sometimes You Get What You Need” (slides) Josh Angrist (MIT, Economics)
5:00– 5:20		Break / walk to location
5:20 – 7:00	President’s Room	Welcome Reception

FRIDAY 24 July 2009
8:00 – 10:00	WLH	Welcome Packets & Registration
8:30 – 9:00	WLH	Continental Breakfast
9:00 – 10:20		Session 5 – Split sessions
	WLH 119	5a. Paper: “Joint Modeling of Dynamic and Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity: Hidden Markov Panel Models” Jong Hee Park (University of Chicago) Discussant: John Freeman (University of Minnesota)
	WLH 201	5b. Paper: “Specifying Spike and Slab Prior Distributions for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing of Nonlinear Models” Xun Pang (Washington University, St. Louis) & Jeff Gill (Washington University, St. Louis) Discussant: Shawn Treier (University of Minnesota)
	WLH 208	5c. Paper: “Get Out The Vote-by-Mail?  Evidence from a Natural/Field Experiment” Kevin Arceneaux (Temple), Thad Kousser (UC San Diego) & Megan Mullin (Temple) Discussant: Arthur Spirling (Harvard)
10:20 – 10:30	WLH	Break
10:30 – 12:20	WLH 201	Session 6 – Plenary Panel: “Software Show-and-Tell” Panel Chair: Micah Altman (Harvard) (slides) Panelists: Drew Linzer (Emory; Latent Class package), Jong Hee Park (University of Chicago; MCMC) (slides), Jens Hainmueller (Harvard; Synth), Walter Mebane (University of Michigan; Genoud; paper), Matthew Blackwell (Harvard, Amelia II; paper)
12:20 – 2:00	TD College	Lunch
1:15 – 2:00	TD College	Meet the NSF Directors
2:00 – 3:20		Session 7 – Split sessions
	WLH 119	7a. Paper: “Unnecessary or Insufficient? QCA and Alternative Methods for Boolean Inference” Burt Monroe (Penn State) & Suzanne M. Chod (Penn State) Discussant:  Justin Esarey (Emory)
	WLH 208	7b. Paper: “Mobilization and Participation: A Natural Experiment” (slides) Yusaku Horiuchi (Australian National University) & Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University) Discussant:  Karen Jusko (Stanford)
	WLH 201	7c. Paper: “Why Process Matters for Causal Inference” Adam Glynn (Harvard) & Kevin Quinn (UC Berkeley) Discussant:  Luke Keele (Ohio State)
3:20 – 3:30	WLH	Break
3:30– 4:50		Session 8 – Split sessions
	WLH 201	8a. Paper: “Opiates for the Matches” (slides) Jasjeet Sekhon (UC Berkeley) Discussant: Jake Bowers (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
	WLH 119	8b. Paper: “Combining Field and Natural Experiments to Strengthen Causal Inference” Thad Dunning (Yale) Discussant: Drew Linzer (Emory)
4:50 – 5:10		Break / walk to location
5:10 – 6:10	Thomas More Center	Session 9 – Plenary Business Meeting
6:10 – 7:00	Thomas More Center	Light Reception

SATURDAY 25 July 2009
8:30 – 9:00	WLH	Continental Breakfast
9:00 – 10:20		Session 10 – Split sessions
	WLH 201	10a. Paper: “Matching and Experiments: Causal Inferences without Full Randomization” R. Michael Alvarez (California Institute of Technology) & Betsy Sinclair (University of Chicago) Discussant: David Nickerson (Notre Dame)
	WLH 119	10b. Paper: “What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Continuous or Ordered Event History Analysis Using Copula” (slides) Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University) Discussant: John Londregan (Princeton)
	WLH 208	10c. Paper: “Candidate Positioning in U.S. Senate Elections” Michael Peress (University of Rochester) Discussant: John Jackson (University of Michigan)
10:20 – 10:30	WLH	Break
10:30-11:50	WLH 201	Session 11 – Plenary Paper: “Quantitative Discovery from Qualitative Information: A General-Purpose Document Clustering Methodology” Justin Grimmer (Harvard) & Gary King (Harvard) Discussant: Jack Buckley (New York University)
11:50 – 1:50	TD College	Lunch
1:50 – 3:10		Session 12 – Split sessions
	WLH 201	12a. Paper: “Tests of Covariate Balance in Propensity-Matched Observational Studies” Ben Hansen (University of Michigan) Discussant: Jonathan Katz (California Institute of Technology)
	WLH 119	12b. Paper: “Statistical Analysis of Causal Mechanisms” Kosuke Imai (Princeton), Luke Keele (Ohio State University), Dustin Tingley (Princeton), Teppei Yamamoto (Princeton) Discussant: Walter Mebane (University of Michigan)(slides)
3:10 – 3:40		Walk to location / Set up posters
3:40 – 6:40	Omni Hotel	Session 13: Faculty and graduate student posters
6:40 – 7:00	Omni Hotel	Take down posters
7:00 – 9:00	Omni Hotel	Session 14 – Closing Dinner & Program Panel: “Political Methodology – The View from 2033” Panel Chair: Henry Brady (UC Berkeley) Panelists: Wendy Tam Cho (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign), Jeff Lewis (UCLA), Kosuke Imai (Princeton)