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2005 Political Methodology Summer Conference

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Poster Presentations

One of the great traditions of the Political Methods conference is the graduate student poster session. This year, we have well over 50 posters being presented dealing with a wide range of both substantive and methodological issues. Their titles and authors are listed below. The poster session is scheduled for Friday night from 7-9 p.m. However, students have been encouraged to set up their posters during breakfast on Friday, making them available for viewing the entire day. So please spend some time checking out the poster room and providing the students with some feedback on their hard work.

"A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time Series Cross-Sectional Data," Joseph Bafumi, Columbia

"A Multilevel Modeling Framework for Analyzing Heterogeneity in Decision Processes, with an Application to Supreme Court Decision-Making," Brandon Bartels, Ohio State University

"A Unified Software Architecture for Any Statistical Procedure," Olivia Lau, Harvard

"All Change!: Some Political Science Applications of Structural Break BHM," Arthur Spirling, Rochester

"An Incomplete Data Approach to Ecological Inference," Ying Lu, Harvard

"Analyzing Cross-Country Survey Data: Results from Monte Carlo Experiments," Eduardo Leoni, Columbia

"Applying `Mixture Cure’ Survival Models to Third Party Interventions into Civil Wars," Michael Findley, University of Illinois

"Bayesian estimation of ideal points in the British House of Commons using Early Day Motions," Michael Kellermann, Harvard

"Bayesian Methods for (B)TSCS and Panel Models," Ben Goodrich, Harvard

"Beyond David and Goliath: Examing Major Power Interactions," Daniel Morey, University of Iowa

"Campaign Information and Candidate Support: Issues in Modeling Voter Behavior Across Days of the Campaign," Corwin D. Smidt, Ohio State University

"Candidate Advertisements, National Security, and the 2002 Midterm Election," Hannah Goble, University of Wisconsin, Timothy Werner, University of Wisconsin

"Causal Inference using Regression Discontinuity Designs," Daniel Butler, Stanford

"Courting Public Opinion: Utilizing Jury Pools in Experimental Research," Christopher Lewis, FSU, Dona-Gene Mitchell, FSU, Cindy Rugeley, FSU

"Dynamic Loglinear Path Models with Latent Variables: An Application to Declining Satisfaction with Democracy in Mexico," David Crow, UT Austin

"Dynamic Representation Revisited: New Measures and the Media," Philip Habel, University of Illinois

"Endogenous Preference Formation: A Hierarchical Approach," Dominick' Wright, University of Michigan

"Escape clauses and self-enforcement in free-trade agreements among small nations," Eduardo Castro, Princeton

"Estimating Ideological Constraint from Public Opinion Data by Mixing Multinomial Distributions," Drew Linzer, UCLA

"Fact or Artifact? Comparing Two Competing Hypotheses for Explaining Trends in Political Interest," Ray Block, Ohio State University

"Heteroskedastic Models of Latent Trajectories," James E. Monogan III, University of North Carolina

"Identifying Regional Dynamics in State Electoral Institutions and Voter Turnout Rates, 1920-2000," Melanie Springer, Columbia

"Is It Better To Be First Or Last? The Ballot Order Effect," Betsy Sinclair, Caltech

"Joint Critical Values of unit-root and stationary tests," Jee-Kwang Park, Columbia/Princeton

"Just Thinking: Inattention Versus Ignorance in the Distortion of Political Preferences," Mathieu Turgeon, University of Texas at Austin

"Measuring the Effect of Voting Technology on Residual Vote Rates," Delia Grigg, California Institute of Technology

"Measuring the Nationalization of Electoral Change in Multiparty Presidential Contests in Latin America," Marisa Kellam, UCLA

"Micro-incentives and the dynamics of policy networks," Ramiro Berardo, FSU

"Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth: Relaxing the Linearity Assumption," Muhammet Bas, University of Rochester

"New Order of International Finance: A Bayesian Approach," Monika Klimek, University of Colorado

"Out-of-Sample Forecasting: Predicting Forced Migration, Across Space & Over Time," Jacqueline Rubin, FSU

"Polarized Elites, Moderate Voters: Sorting and Polarizationin the Mass Electorate, 1972-2004," Matt Levendusky, Stanford

"Political Disaster? Electoral Politics and Presidential Disaster Declarations," Andrew Reeves, Harvard

"Political Institutions and Popular Satisfaction with Democracy," Wonbin Cho, Michigan State University

"Political Perception and the Micro-Macro Paradox," Evan Parker-Stephen, University of North Carolina

"Redistricting and Campaign Contributions to Congressional Candidates: A Quasi-Experiment," Michael Crespin, Michigan State University

"Slaying the Hydra: Recruitment and Terrorist Group Duration," Jonathan Berohn, University of Colorado

"Small Cities, Big Spenders: Using Matching to Estimate Contextual Influences on Public Investment," Daniel Hopkins, Harvard

"Social Embeddedness and Voting: The Paradox of Voter Turnout Revisited," Samuel J. Abrams, Harvard

"Stochastic Recursion in a Simultaneous Probit Model: A Global Analysis of Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regime Choice," Robert Walker, University of Rochester

"Strategic Interaction in Territorial Dispute Initiation and Escalation," David B. Carter, University of Rochester

"Survival Analysis of Systematically Dependent Competing Risks: An Application to Legislators’ Electoral Defeat, Retirement, and Death," Kentaro Fukumoto, Harvard

"The Dynamics of the Invisible Primary 1980-2004," Hans Noel, UCLA

"The Economic Context of Racial Attitudes: A Study in the Usefulness of Matching," Katie Drake, Univ. of Michigan

"The Political Representation of the Poor in Developed Democracies," Karen Long Jusko, University of Michigan

""Judicial Influence on Congresspersons: Evidence from a Panel Vector Autoregression," Thomson W. McFarland, University of Colorado

"The Spread of State Health Policy: Differentiating Diffusion and Emulation Through Directed Dyad-Year Models," Brad Kile, FSU

"The Supreme Court and Public Opinion: The Case of Gay Rights," Joe Ura, University of North Carolina

"The trouble with estimates of priming," Gabriel Lenz, Princeton

"Trade and Militarized Conflict: How Modeling Strategic Interactions Between States makes a Difference," Shawn Rowan, FSU

"Understanding Support for European Integration:  An Application of Hierarchical Linear Modelling," Sabri Ciftci, FSU

"Unifying Theory and Testing of Economic Sanctions Outcomes," Taehee Whang, University of Rochester

"Using Cross-Validation to Test the Pooling Assumption in a Cross-Sectional Time-Series Setting," Piero Stanig, Columbia

"Using Multiple Data Sources to Analyze Trust in the Media and Political Learning," Jonathan Ladd, Princeton

"Voter Turnout in Electoral Contexts: Application of Hierarchical Modeling Technique to a Longitudinal Analysis," Tetsuya Matsubayashi, Texas A&M University

"What can be wrong in the analysis of nonstationary time series cross sectional data?" Jong Hee Park, Washington University in St.Louis

"Who's Your Daddy? Legitimacy, Regime Type, and the Duration of Leadership Tenure," Randall Blimes, University of Colorado

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